A West Asian game changer in the making at last?

The agreement reached between Iran and the P-5+1 (the UN Security Council’s five permanent members plus Germany) is a big step towards resolving the crisis over Iran’s nuclear programme. Even better, it could eventually bring about a historic rapprochement between Washington and Tehran, whose relations were ruptured by the Islamic Revolution of 1979. If the agreement leads to stable long-term arrangements that limit Iran’s nuclear activities to peaceful purposes, it will become a game changer in West Asia and radically alter power balances between its major states.

Under the deal, Iran will stop enriching uranium above the 5-per cent level for six months, “neutralise” its 20-per cent-enriched uranium stock, add no new centrifuges at a new enrichment facility, and stop the commissioning of a heavy water-based reactor which can produce plutonium. Iran will also allow intrusive daily inspections at its enrichment plants. All this will ensure that Iran cannot secretly enrich uranium to the 90-per cent-plus level needed for a nuclear bomb, or take the alternative plutonium route to nuclear weapons. 

In return, Iran will get access to $5-6 billion of revenues earned from oil and gold sales, and sanctions on certain sectors will be relaxed. The agreement will still deny Iran access to the $100 billion or so it has in foreign exchange reserves. Clearly, Iran has agreed to these lopsided terms because it sees long-term political benefits in normalising relations with the Western powers.

However, enforcing the agreement won’t be a cake-walk. Iran claimed the agreement recognises its right to enrich uranium. The US immediately denied this. France—which formed a troika with Israel and Saudi Arabia to oppose an agreement, and scuppered the penultimate round of Iran-P-5+1 talks — still remains suspicious and could create technical hurdles. Israel is furiously lobbying US lawmakers against the deal,  and has branded it “a historic mistake”. It complains that Iran won’t dismantle a single centrifuge under it. It wants Iran to stop enrichment forever.

Israel’s stand is legally untenable and politically-morally hypocritical. Israel has the nuclear capability that Iran would have eventually acquired had enrichment continued unhindered. It also has a full-fledged nuclear weapons arsenal, with 200-plus warheads. This is the twice the size of India’s or Pakistan’s arsenal. Its security rationale is incomprehensible considering that Israel faces no threat that would be nuclearly deterred, and remains in illegal and brutal occupation of Palestinian territory, the longest such occupation in post-War history.

The agreement came about not just because Iran sent many conciliatory signals and slowed down its nuclear activities after President Hassan Rouhani took office in June, but also because Washington is slowly recognising the changed ground realities in West Asia-North Africa and Iran’s emergence as a major player. Iran exercises considerable influence in Iraq and Syria and over the Hezbollah militia, the sole force which has fought Israel to a standstill.

Amidst reckless promotion of hardline Salafi Islam in the region by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Iran could act as a countervailing moderate force just as the US becomes increasingly oil-independent of Saudi Arabia. This could pave the way to Iran’s much-craved recognition as a normal, responsible (as opposed to “rogue”) State. That will strengthen the domestic moderates and make for more internal democracy and freedom—much needed, as I know from recent Iran visits.

Hopefully, all this will restructure regional inter-state relations, exercise a sobering influence on Saudi Arabia, and eventually create conditions conducive to ending Israel’s occupation of Palestine — and to a new West Asian order.

The author is a writer, columnist, and a professor at the Council for Social Development, Delhi