DNA Edit: Troubled Congress

Prime Minister Narendra Modi proved once again what we all know, that he is a game changer. His entry in the last leg of campaigning for the Karnataka polls showed once again how much the BJP relies on him. Though the BJP fell just short of the magic mark of 112 seats, the PM’s concerted attacks on Rahul Gandhi and the Congress, reminded us of two things: first, unlike other leaders who normally face a slide in ratings after three years, ‘Brand Modi’ still very much resonates with India and second, Rahul Gandhi is still unable to win an election on his own.

Rahul seems to have recognised as much and that too some time ago. His tie-up with Akhilesh Yadav in the UP state elections and his almost complete ‘outsourcing’ of this state election campaign to Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, showed that he was not confident of delivering the election on his own steam. Despite a more charged up campaign this time around, Rahul knows that his Grand Old Party (GOP) will remain a junior partner in the alliance with Deve Gowda’s JD(S).

Already, the parties have agreed to a deal whereby Gowda’s son HD Kumaraswamy will be the Chief Minister, while the Congress will get to appoint a Dalit as Deputy Minister. This is a big blow for Rahul, who had seen the Karnataka polls as a stepping board to showcase himself as PM material. In this, he failed. It’s not just Rahul who has got a rude shock. Despite an anti-incumbency factor and most exit polls favouring a hung parliament, Siddaramaiah was a confident man in the run-up to the poll results.

The fact that not only did his party perform below expectations, but that he himself lost from Chamundeshwari, a seat that has elected him five times in the past, was a rude shock. Worse still for him, Siddaramaiah has to live with the fact that with the JD(S) driving the reins, he is out in the cold. Hence, his statement that ‘this will be my last election’ may prove truer that he thought. For the BJP, there are a number of positives.

Though the saffron party will be slightly disappointed by the fact that they could not breach the majority mark, the fact that they almost made it suggests an anti-BJP front may not be enough to keep them from winning more state polls and the national election. The party is also right in pointing out that the Congress and the JD(S) ate into each other’s votes in the Karnataka elections, a factor that leaders from other political parties now recognise as well.

West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee pointed out in a tweet that the parties — Congress and JD(S)— should have allied from the beginning. While this idea sounds good in theory, it will be harder to implement in practice. In Karnataka, the alliance talks were relatively smooth, as both sides had one common agenda — keep the BJP out at any cost. This may not be the case going forward in other states and certainly not in 2019. Differences in ideology, temperament and the lack of a leader who can really match the PM at the national level will be crucial factors for which a ‘Third Front’ — if it is formed  will have to find answers for quickly. So far, there are none.