Cricket World Cup 2015: Which teams are firm favourites to lift the Cup Down Under?

As the World Cup begins, we take a look at who could be the favourites to lift the trophy this time. We have picked two teams who we think might go all the way in the marquee tournament.

New Zealand – A very light shade of dark
When ‘experts’ say it, we talk about it around water coolers. When a few of the best to wield the willow say it, we ponder and brood. When Sachin Tendulkar, says New Zealand are one of the top four contenders, we suddenly see the light – because when Sachin bats you watch and when he speaks you listen - very very intently. The dark horses, suddenly, aren’t so dark anymore. It was aggregating for a while though. The Black Caps have managed to string a unit that looks like a genuine contender. The last time the World Cup was played down under, New Zealand flagged off the tournament by beating Australia – as we return there, they will be hoping to start similarly but end better. That was the era of Greatbatch and Crowe, of scoring heavily in the first fifteen – this is of Taylor and McCullum, of error margins in centimetres and lead feet on the gas pedal. Never before has this country’s cricket team entered a competition with odds so much in favour of them as they are now – something that their Rugby team deals with on a daily basis. 

Entering a competition under the ‘dark horse’ tag means you exceed expectations at a bronze play-off. Satisfaction is thrust rather than achieved. It would be wrong and unjust to label New Zealand as a ‘dark horse’ this time – this time they are on a bullish year since the start of 2014. Their leader has hit a purple patch as lengthy as the farms down there. Along with McCullum, Guptill, Williamson and Anderson too have been impressing the cricket fraternity for a while and Sachin has picked Kane Williamson along with Milne, as two of the players to watch for over the next few years. 

New Zealand have primed their engines very well by winning the warmup match against the mighty Proteas. How much ever experts will downplay this, the fact remains that New Zealand defeated a full strength South-Africa, rather comfortably. Their batting is looking very exciting with Anderson and Taylor in decent form and Ronchi at his usual explosive. Along with Elliot and McCullums it makes for a robust and destructive line-up. 

To find a replacement to Shane Bond as soon as they have managed to do – is an absolute blessing. New Zealand better be wrapping Milne in cotton wool. Boult, Southee and the second fastest to 50 wicket man – McClenaghan, make their bowling unit as formidable as any, and more than theirs has ever been. All this works like a well-oiled machine because of that man at the helm – the one without a defensive bone in his body and a negative thought in his mind. McCullum had always grabbed eyeballs with his explosive batting – but his transition into the galvaniser of a team has been smooth and steadfast. He has brought to the team a belief and purpose that had been absent or at best a mere flicker in the past. 

New Zealand kick-off their campaign against a side that is very edgy, unbalanced and striving hard to find any kind of rhythm. They should be able to secure a win, provided they negotiate the Malinga chicane. The format allows big sides to get into their groove with enough matches before the knockouts. To finish at the top of the podium is largely a matter of three good days towards the business end of the tournament – New Zealand definitively look like having at least two great ones there.

Australia – the perennial favourites
Except for the fact that Yuvraj Singh had other plans, Australia were on course for an unprecedented fourth consecutive world championship. But as far as Australia are concerned, they are always on course. This time too, no one can bet against them. This speaks volumes of the philosophy of that country as a sporting nation. Sport purists all over the world marvel at their work ethic and the titanium will to win – which sometimes does cross the line. Yes, it dents the reputation and earns a column or two about the necessity and evils of sledging and spirit of the game, but when the results are so lopsided, ‘experts’, fans and the board don’t really care. 

Australia are heavily armed, with pocket dynamites of likes of Warner and Smith and monster trucks in Finch, Maxwell and Johnson. James Faulkner if fit, reinforces the cavalry with a stealth bomber. With such firepower, the unit needs a leader that can marshal the resources and use them wisely yet effectively. Therein lies Australia’s biggest problem – who is their leader? Clarke, if did have the support of the board, coach and players, wouldn’t have been in a soup that he is. It seems, he doesn’t – for a multitude of reasons that go beyond the field play. It just doesn’t make sense that a fit Clarke brings Bailey’s position in jeopardy. 

On the filed though, Australia don’t look like making a string of mistakes that would derail their campaign. Unforced errors won’t tally up to that extent. As for forced errors, they do have a chink or two in that armour – which has happened to armies that are this strong. Quality spin bowling is the Guerrilla warfare tactic that Australia have to negotiate. Teams do know that, but lack execution. If we are to count the number of quality spinners, the list is barely a handful – all other teams combined. The list would constitute of Vettori, Herath, Tahir, Moeen Ali and Ashwin – taking nothing away from other spinners, who are bound to trouble Australia to some extent. 

With the nature of pitches that we have seen this summer and are bound to over the tournament, swing more than pace is likely to affect all batsmen. Australian batsmen will have the advantage of – mainly not facing the best or second bowling attack – theirs own. Secondly, they are not a side that capitulates in face of fast bowling – their batting depth is a good arrestor to that. Bowling attacks of only England, South-Africa and New Zealand are likely to give the Australian team a taste of their own bitter medicine.

The World Cup is not entirely theirs to lose, but given the team, their current form and ability – it is almost theirs to lose.  In the foray of contenders, are two other teams – South-Africa and India. Both these teams owe their being tagged as one of the favourites to emotions. Emotions of different kinds and from different sources. All neutral fans want to see them at least win one major. The spirit in which DeVelliers, Amla and Steyn play and conduct themselves is an absolute delight. And then they also have awe inspiring numbers to back that. As this column has previously stressed on the secret benefit that South-Africa are carrying this time – that of not carrying with them a mental conditioning coach, it remains to be seen if a certain Mr. Murphy surfaces to show his ugly face to them. A nation expects with baited breath with breaths never encountered before. 

India may have just won a game convincingly against Pakistan, but their chances, to be brutal, are hinged only on the belief in historical evidence of tricks and strategies MS Dhoni manages to pull off and that supremely talented batting line-up waking up in time (which it did only partially in Adelaide on Sunday). If the batting does click to 80% of its ability, most targets will be comfortably chased – but this means a lot depends on the coin toss. This is a format, MS Dhoni has made his own and in which he has achieved everything there is to. He would want to leave a not easily forgettable legacy as the greatest Indian ODI captain. This column rarely predicts – but if and when put at the business end of a Mitchell Johnson bouncer, these would most likely be the last four standing teams. Everyone loves an underdog story, but even more romantic is a story of expectations being met and clinical performances.