Amma Mia: Political vacuum grips Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa was on Saturday disqualified from contesting elections for six years following her conviction in a corruption case by a special Bangalore court.

Finding her guilty of amassing wealth estimated over Rs 66 crore, disproportionate to her known sources of income, during her first tenure as chief minister in 1991, special judge John Michael Cunha also slapped a fine of Rs 100 crore on her – the highest fine to be imposed by a court in a corruption case in India.

She also became the first chief minister to be unseated because of a conviction under the Prevention of Corruption Act.

Her associates Sasikala, Inavarasi and foster son Sudharkaran, were also found guilty of corruption, conspiracy and criminal conduct. They were sentenced to four years' rigorous imprisonment and fined Rs 10 crore each. The judge held they were her benamis.

Her imprisonment has created a political vacuum in the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and Tamil Nadu. With all ministers in Bangalore to show their solidarity, shocked cadres took to the streets, triggering sporadic violence, crippling normal life all over the state.

What options have the AIADMK got?
The AIADMK will have to elect an alternative leader like O Panneerselvam. If it does, the government can continue till the next elections in 2016. However, if the party, which thrives on personality cult, again elects Jaya as its leader, there will be a constitutional crisis, leading to the imposition of president's rule.

What are Jayalalithaa's options ?
Jayalalithaa can and will appeal against the court verdict. But her six-year ban will start from the time she completes her jail term. She will find it difficult to be the power behind the throne because the so-called loyalists will abide by her only so long as she can help them remain in power.

Is there a government now?
The court verdict also means her government will automatically cease to exist even though the AIADMK has a comfortable majority in the assembly. With no government at the helm, a situation akin to what happened when AIADMK leader and three-time chief minister MGR passed away in December 1987 prevails now.

Wasn't she convicted earlier also?
In 2001, she was barred from contesting elections following her conviction in two corruption cases and she was convicted to two years, as required under the PCA. Yet, she led the AIADMK to victory and the party duly elected her as its leader. The then Governor and former Supreme Court judge Fatima Beevi swore her in, until the Supreme Court directed her to step down and clear her name first.

So, who ruled the state that time?
Jayalalithaa appointed her seniormost leader O Pannerselvam as chief minister, who kept the seat warm until she got acquitted. But in one of the cases, the TANSI case, the Supreme Court, while acquitting her on ground that TANSI was not government property, said she should atone for her crime. Later, she returned the land acquired at throwaway price.