Kerala Elections 2016: O Rajagopal, the man behind BJP's historic win

As he irons clothes in a residential area of Nemom near the heart of the city, Madhu listens to a conversation about the chances for BJP's O Rajagopal this time. He butts in saying "it's now or never for him."

In Thiruvananthapuram, most political pundits would agree on this.

Just a stone's throw away, Rajagopal was visiting a temple. The BJP is pinning its hopes largely on the octogenarian to open its account in a state where the CPM-led LDF and Congress-led UDF have so far cornered the affiliations of all sections. Rajagopal, who has fought and lost over half a dozen elections-- four of which were for the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat-- since 1980, is now pitted against CPM's two-time MLA V Sivankutty and V Surendran Pillai of JD-S in a triangular contest. It was the Aruvikkara by-poll he fought last year, in which the BJP increased its vote share four times, that had raised the party's hopes even though he had failed to make it to the assembly.

With his gentle, calm and smiling demeanour, Rajettan, as he is popularly called, is far from being hated. "He is a nice person with a clean image... He should get a chance," is a familiar refrain. Yet, it's not always that the praise translates into votes for him.

But, he and the BJP believe that things have changed for the party in Kerala. "There has been a growth at the grassroots for the BJP. The party got 15 per cent votes in local body elections. This will increase further," Rajagopal told DNA.

The BJP's hopes of making electoral inroads also stem from the fact that it had a 18,000 votes lead in Nemom, which falls in Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat, during the 2014 general elections. Besides, the party is trying to capture the space left because of "disillusionment" with the two alliances which have alternately ruled the state.

If the BJP's expectations turn out to be true, Kerala's political matrix will never be the same again.

In a state with a minority population of 48 per cent, the BJP is trying to do a tightrope walk. While it tries to consolidate the Hindu vote, it faces the challenge of fighting the perception that it was a polarising force. According to sources, the party is refraining from any aggressive approach, like shouting "Bharat mata ki Jai", that could upset the Muslims, even as it tries to tap nationalist sentiments.

BJP state chief Kummanam Rajasekharan said that cow slaughter cannot be banned in the state though it has caused a reduction in cattle population. The party is focusing on issues like water, land, health, employment and social justice and corruption-free government. "Unemployment national average is 4% and in Kerala it is 7 %. The youth is leaving Kerala and 25 lakh are in Mumbai. We need to halt the brain drain," Rajasekharan told DNA.

He faces a tough battle in Vattiyoorkavu, where Congress sitting MLA K Muraleedharan and CPM's TN Seema are in fray. The Congress came third in the local body elections.

In Nemom, the party is also counting on the Muslim vote splitting between the LDF and UDF. The Muslims are happy with the Congress-led government's curbs on liquor sale and favour prohibition. Another section wants change and favours Sivankutty. Several people say the fight is mainly between Sivankutty and Rajagopal.

Rajagopal dismissed as propaganda opposition charges that the BJP discriminated on basis of religion. "It's old world notions... People have seen for themselves that there is no such thing," he said.

Aisha Biwi, who sells pots on the main road, has been voting for The Communists. Her daughter Nabisa said her father was a staunch Communist and her entirely family voted for Left. "But, I will vote for Congress," she said. The road in front has been widened and the shopkeepers are happy.

The CPM suspects there is a deal between the Congress and BJP. "The Congress has taken a soft Hindutva position. They have entered an understanding with the BJP in some constituencies like Nemom, Thiruvananthapuram and Manjeswaram," said CPM's P Rajeev. He recalled that in 1960, Jan Sangh withdrew candidate against EMS and supported Congress's Achuthan Nair.

According to social scientist MA Oommen, the BJP's growth was a reflection of inefficiency of other parties.

With the entire RSS machinery working for the BJP, Vellapally Natesan's BJDS by its side and projection of Modi government's schemes, the party is hoping to become at least a significant player in Kerala's politics. Some observers say at best the BJP and its allies will play spoiler, mostly for LDF for which the ezhavas have voted, others predict that its role will weaken the UDF and LDF, which have ruled the state. The test for the BJP would be how many people are ready to give it a chance in the state.

This article was first published on dna on April 24. It has been updated in light of O Rajagopal's win in Kerala's 2016 assembly election.