Nawaz Sharif's ouster: Fresh security complications for India, Pak may be difficult to deal with

Nawaz Sharif's ouster means fresh security complications for India as political instability will result in an even greater role for Pakistan's Army, which has been calling the shots anyway.

Sharif's brother and current Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, who is expected to replace him, might be severely constrained once he takes over, diplomatic sources told DNA here on Friday.

Foreign policy expert Shashadari Chari says Friday's court order will further embolden the Pakistan Army. As is evident from Indian national Kulbhushan Jadhav's case, Pakistan Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa has already begun asserting himself against the political class.

Former High Commissioner of India to Pakistan TCA Raghavan believes there will be complete chaos in Pakistan. "There is going to be internal instability there and this will impact India as well. An unpredictable condition cannot be ruled out," he says.

Another former envoy, G Parthasarathy, also agrees that ties will become more turbulent. "It may add a period of volatility within Pakistan and, therefore, greater risks in relations between India and Pakistan," he said.

The ousted PM's Pakistan Muslim League (PML) has always been a better bet for India vis-à-vis its rival Pakistan People's Party (PPP) led by the Bhuttos.

There was little chance of Sharif making any move to improve ties with India independent of the military. But his presence was still a big hope that Pakistan would slowly emerge as a stable democracy.

Ahead of the 2013 general elections, Sharif was sending messages of peace and friendship to India, promising to start from where he had left off in 1999, when he was unceremoniously thrown out of power by General Pervez Musharraf.

Even though regarded as secular, PPP sends friendly vibes to India only when in Opposition, but changes track when it assumes power, a former top security official told dna.

Former PMs Inder Kumar Gujral and Atal Bihari Vajpayee heavily banked on Sharif to keep India-Pakistan relations on track. Sharif was an anchor of Gujral's 1997 initiative that had led to the setting up of eight working groups and a composite dialogue process and then to the 1999 Lahore Accord, when Vajpayee undertook a historic bus journey, which was soon followed by the Kargil conflict.

In a similar way, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had also pinned hopes on Sharif to reverse battering relations. Sharif arrived with other SAARC leaders in May 2014 for Modi's swearing-in. On December 25, 2015, on his way back from Kabul, Modi also dropped in to greet him on his birthday in Lahore and took part in the wedding of his granddaughter. But soon an attack on an Indian Army camp in Kashmir's Uri killing 18 soldiers reversed the bonhomie.

When Sharif was elected, there were hopes in New Delhi that under him, relations would improve and he would crack down on terrorism, reform economy, as he was seen a proponent of South Asian connectivity. Sharif's tenure and his rant on Kashmir didn't help in improving relations, but his exit has left India concerned.

Ever since the attack in Uri last year, India-Pakistan relations deteriorated. India national Kulbhushan Jadhav's case further worsened the ties.

Congress leader and India's former consulate general in the now-defunct Karachi consulate, Mani Shankar Aiyar, however, said since there has been a smooth transition of power from Nawaz to Shahbaz, he doesn't foresee any crises. "If Nawaz had dug his heels to reject the court order, then the Army would have intervened and complicated the situation. I don't think the new arrangement will affect relations with India. The Army in Pakistan is already a major political force," he said.

Though Sharif never challenged the Army, there were indications that the political establishment in Pakistan was trying to assert itself. Last year in October, a Pakistani media report about a closed-door meeting between the government and the Army disclosed "an extraordinary verbal confrontation" between Shahbaz and the ISI DG. "In a blunt, orchestrated and unprecedented warning, the civilian government has informed the military leadership of a growing international isolation of Pakistan and sought consensus on several key actions by the state," a report in Dawn had stated.

The road ahead

Foreign policy expert Shashadari Chari says the court order will further embolden the Pakistan Army.
Sharif’s tenure and his rant on Kashmir didn’t improve relations, but his exit has left India concerned.