Assertive India refuses to be cowed down by aggressive China

In Chinese astrology, independent India (1947) would come under the zodiac sign of ‘Pig’ - honest, sympathetic, peace seeker and gullible — and China (1949) would come under ‘Ox’ - deep thinker, patient and careful, strong, fearless and stubborn.

The two zodiac signs are not known to enjoy great compatibility.

But 2011, the ‘Year of the Rabbit’, was supposed to reflect, in world’s affairs, the traits of a ‘rabbit’ — refined, creative, peaceful and harmonious. ‘Rabbits’ hate confrontations. If faced with one, astrologers say, they tend to be calm and considerate, but can be assertive too.

India and China came close to confrontations of a new kind in 2011. The most glaring ones were on India’s oil exploration pact with Vietnam in the South China Sea; and the Buddhist convention in Delhi that led to cancellation of the special representatives’ boundary talks last month.

After the talks fiasco, Chinese Communist Party-run Global Times said New Delhi was beginning to adopt a “bold stance” in dealing with Beijing. “The country appears to be highly interested in facing off with China,” the newspaper said.

Former foreign secretary Shyam Saran, however, feels it’s the other way round. Propelled by its rising economic stature, China, he says, has become more forceful in its dealings. “I am not aware of any change in India’s policy towards China. I think it’s China that is increasingly becoming more assertive. India does not wish to be provocative, but at the same time, is conscious that certain red lines must not be crossed.”

For instance, in the South China Sea, Saran says, ONGC Videsh Ltd’s oil exploration pact with Vietnam is not a new project. “British Petroleum had a licence to operate in one of the blocks for years. OVL acquired that interest when BP exited, that’s all.”

However, professor Madhu Bhalla, who teaches Chinese studies at Delhi University, feels there is, perhaps, a rethink in India’s approach towards China. “I think there is some sort of a rethink within the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) that India need not be over sensitive to Chinese sensibilities.”

During his bilateral meeting with Wen Jiabao, prime minister Manmohan Singh was polite but firm when he expressed India’s position on its oil exploration pact with Vietnam. Singh told Jiabao that India’s exploration was purely a “commercial activity” and that “issues of sovereignty should be resolved according to international law”.

Earlier this year, China had sent a strong demarche raising objections to India’s oil and gas exploration pact with Vietnam. India chose to ignore the Chinese protests and, in return, lodged a strong diplomatic protest against China’s activities in Pakistan occupied Kashmir.

China has been pumping money into infrastructure projects in PoK and also, according to reports, placed some 4,000 men, including “PLA regulars” in the region.

“In dealing with China, we need to be more prudent but also firm where our interests are concerned. When we act firmly, the Chinese do step back on occasions,” Saran says.

This year, China appears to have quietly discontinued the practice of issuing stapled visas to residents of J&K, thus removing a major irritant in the relations. Besides, a Chinese court, in a rare gesture, let off 13 diamond traders from Gujarat and Mumbai with fines.

On the Buddhist congregation issue, things threatened to go out of control. China first demanded that the Dalai Lama be barred from making an address, and then sought suspension of the convention itself. India refused to bow to either of the demands.

Through their demands on cancellation of the Dalai Lama’s address, first in Delhi and then in Kolkata, the Chinese tried doing two things, says Jayadeva Ranade, former additional secretary, Cabinet Secretariat. “First, they tried putting greater pressure on India. Second, they tried to circumscribe the Dalai Lama’s space in India. And, India did show a stiffening of the spine.”

One way of looking at things, observers argue, is that the two sides with greater diplomatic engagements now than before have acquired better understanding of each other and a greater maturity in handling situations. “I think there is greater realism and better management of tensions now than before. Uncertainties and ups and downs will continue,” says Alka Acharya, Professor of Chinese studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.

“While the Chinese did take a tough stand on the Buddhist Congregation issue, they also keep a door open and went ahead with the defence talks earlier this month,” says Ranade.

Indo-China relations have been blow hot and cold on mutual trust and understanding, but have significantly improved, economically. The two sides held their first strategic economic dialogue in September in Beijing.

On climate talks in Durban the two sides made common cause.

However, Bhalla argues, “We are only acting unilaterally. On climate change it just ‘happens’ that we agree. We will always have a strategic issue. We are not partners the way it should be. If China wants to place its naval fleet in the Seychelles to supply its anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden, why can’t it involve littoral states of the Indian Ocean? Whenever we have made such suggestions they have not really responded.”