Warming up to a global agreement

The political climate, at least, is improving. Momentum appears to be building up towards some kind of a meaningful agreement being reached at Copenhagen as two key players, US President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Manmohan, announced their decision to attend the ‘crunch sessions’ at the summit, when key decisions are likely to be taken and deals inked.

Sources in the PMO confirmed that the PM wanted to be in Copenhagen when the meeting is being concluded. “Given that several heads of government, and especially the US President, are attending the summit, the PM at the last minute decided to attend the summit,” said a senior official. Originally, environment minister Jairam Ramesh was set to represent India at Copenhagen.

Obama, who was set to attend the summit on December 9, on his way to Oslo to collect the Nobel Peace prize, will now attend the conference on the last day, December 18 (which coincides with Singh’s date). Environmentalists had expressed surprise at Obama’s initial decision, pointing out that hard bargaining on emission targets would take place at the climax of the summit.

“Based on his talks with other leaders, the president believes that continued US leadership can be most productive through his participation at the end of the summit on Dec 18 rather than on Dec 9,” the White House said.

Interestingly, both the PM’s and Obama’s decisions to attend the summit finale follow significant announcements of on emission targets by the respective countries.

The Prime Minister’s decision comes two days after environment minister Jairam Ramesh told the Lok Sabha that India would cut the carbon emissions intensity by 20-25 per cent from its 2005 levels by 2020 (carbon emissions intensity is the percentage of carbon emissions per unit of GDP). India’s pledge follows a similar one by China to cut carbon intensity, though without a hard limit on the amount of emissions per se.

The US, on the other hand, has announced its willingness to cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 17 per cent of its 2005 levels by 2020. It was the last major industrialised country to offer a target for cutting GHG emissions in a UN-led drive to slow global warming.

The first half of the summit will be attended by environment ministers and officials of various countries. It is only when the summit winds to a close that an agreement is expected and world leaders will be there to ink the deal.

Danish officials say more than 100 world leaders have confirmed they will attend the conference, which Denmark hopes will help lay the foundation for a successor to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on curbing global warming gases.

The new schedule for Obama reinforces a building sense of optimism in recent days after the biggest emitters, the US and China, agreed for the first time to some action on global warming. Experts expect the Copenhagen gathering to reach a political agreement that includes targets for cuts in greenhouse gases by rich nations by 2020. Agreement on a successor to Kyoto will be put off until 2010.