Balasaheb’s legacy up for grabs

In the battle between the Senas, the first round has gone to the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, on the other hand, looks embattled after its worst performance in state assembly elections in nearly 20 years.

The Shiv Sena’s tally, at 44 seats, is its lowest since 1991 when it had won 52 seats. Worse, it is likely to lose the status of the main opposition party since its alliance partner, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has won two seats more. The Sena has suffered, experts say, because of a splintering of the Marathi vote in favour of the MNS.

Political observers believe that the MNS has emerged as an alternative to the Sena in Mumbai. Raj Thackeray claimed the Marathi pride plank — for so long a Shiv Sena domain — with gusto, as he set about earning his colours as the true heir to Balasaheb’s legacy.

The result: the MNS, in its first assembly elections, has won 13 seats. Party sources claim that the MNS could have affected the Sena-BJP combine in 30 constituencies. Consider how the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena is down 18 seats from its 2004 showing.
Results notwithstanding, for both parties, the real tussle — for becoming successor to Balasaheb’s Sena — begins in earnest now. 

“Balasaheb has the charisma and capacity to make an emotional appeal to the voters. Raj too has these ‘qualities’,” says analyst Hemant Desai. “On the other hand, while Uddhav does not have the same charisma, he is meticulous in his job.”

Experts say that Shiv Sena erred in its decision to contest more seats in the urban areas. “In its seat-sharing pact with the BJP, the Sena kept maximum urban seats with itself. That was a mistake. Uddhav Thackeray has done superb work in rural areas in the last three years. But Sena contested in fewer seats in the rural areas. That was a surprising move,” an observer said, and it has cost them dearly.

In Mumbai, the party has won only four seats, compared to eight after the 2004 assembly elections. To add insult to injury, the MNS has usurped the second-largest party position in the city, with six seats.

The MNS is likely to spread its wings to the rest of the state soon. “In Maharashtra politics, the trend in Mumbai is always followed by the rest of the state. Sena itself had emerged as a power centre in Mumbai first. It captured the rest of the state later,” said analyst Pratap Asbe.

The atmosphere at the Sena and MNS offices reflected the results. The MNS workers were dancing, waving the party flag and distributing sweets. The Shiv Sena Bhavan, on the other hand, wore a deserted look. Uddhav did not even come out of his house in Bandra.

He later said that he had accepted defeat. “We will work as a responsible opposition party and find out where we fell short in reaching out to the voters in an effective way,” he said. Even as speculation was rife over a possible split within the party, Sena MP Bharatkumar Raut dismissed any such notion saying, “Sena was founded in 1966 and it had tasted power for the first time in 1995. During this period, we were in the opposition and did that job well. We were in opposition since last 10 years too. But it has not affected our organisational structure.”

At the MNS headquarters, Raj maintained that he was happy about his party’s performance, and not over Sena’s failure. “I am happy because we have done well. I never intended to hurt anybody else,” he said.