Change or continuity? Verdict will be out today

Will the Shiv Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance finally succeed in dislodging the Congress-NCP regime or is the ruling combine poised to pull off a hat-trick?
In other words, does the state want change or continuity?

The exit polls spoke in varying voices, with predictions ranging from a clean sweep of 171 to a simple majority of 145, to a low of 125 seats for the Congress-NCP alliance. The guessing game, however, will end today — probably as early as 11am.

 By the end of counting, any of the three possibilities can emerge. One: The Congress-NCP combine gets a simple majority, or 145 seats, to form the government with the Sena-BJP winning less than 120 seats. Two: A hung verdict. Both the Congress-NCP and the Sena-BJP alliances win 125-135 seats, with the rebels and MNS holding the decisive votes. Three: The Sena-BJP wins a simple majority.

If neither alliance gets a clear majority, the rebel and the Raj Thackeray factor will come into play. The MNS, with even 6-10 seats in its kitty, is open to supporting either alliance. As a senior MNS leader said, “If the Sena-BJP government formation depends on us, we will extend support on our terms and conditions. And if the Congress-NCP combine needs our support, we may decide to abstain from voting, thus indirectly helping them to enjoy the majority in the state assembly.”

For the Congress-NCP alliance, in the event of a hung verdict, leaders like Ajit Pawar (NCP), Vilasrao Deshmukh (Congress) and Narayan Rane (Congress) who enjoy support among groups of MLAs will prove critical in rallying rebels towards their combine. “I am sure the Congress-NCP will manage to form the government. Almost 10-15 independents/rebels will always be eager to join hands with the ruling combine. I see no problems in achieving a hat-trick,” says Chhagan Bhujbal, deputy CM and NCP leader.

Confidence is manifest on the other side as well. “Aaplya kashtache sone honar. Aaple sarkaar yenaarch (Our hard work will transform into success. We will form the government),” says Shiv Sena executive president Uddhav Thackeray.

One the other hand, though the possibility of Congress-NCP rebels supporting Sena-BJP is likely only if the ruling combine tally is dismal, BJP general secretary Gopinath Munde is banking on a replay of 1995, when the saffron alliance came to power with the help of 45 rebels (all Congress).

This time the strength of rebels is expected to be 20-25 and both sides have deployed their emissaries to win them over, striking hard bargains not in terms of money but cabinet berths.