Seat-sharing favours Shiv Sena in urban seats

After much debate, the Sena-BJP combine finally announced their seat-sharing agreement on Saturday. The Sena will contest 169, and the BJP, 119 out of the total of 288 assembly seats. Urban constituencies, which are expected to play a major role in the formation of the new government, account for 160 seats, out of which 54 are from Mumbai and Thane.

The seat-sharing formula clearly reveals that the Sena has claimed the lion’s share in urban constituencies, with the BJP getting more in the rural areas. Political observers believe that the alliance’s strength will be tested by the challenge posed by the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena in the urban areas, and the clashes within the alliance in the rural areas.

Some seats, including Malabar Hill, Guhagar (Sindhudurg), Ghatkopar (W) and Achalpur (Amaravati) were the bone of contention for the alliance’s seat-sharing negotiations. While Sena managed to get Guhagar and Achalpur, BJP came away with Malabar Hill and Ghatkopar (W).

“Ability to win was the only criterion for our sharing of seats, except in the case of Guhagar,” said Gopinath Munde, BJP general secretary. The BJP has handed over its ‘traditional’ seat, Guhagar, to Sena, for its leader of opposition Ramdas Kadam.

Political observers believe the Sena’s strategy to control more of the urban seats may hurt the party. “The results of the Lok Sabha election showed that the Sena has more support in rural areas. Uddhav Thackeray’s work on the issues of farmers’ suicides created a strong base for the party in rural areas. But now, as it is all set to contest more in urban territory, the Sena will have a tough time with the MNS,” an observer said.

The second and third rung leaders of the Sena are worried about the MNS factor in urban constituencies, especially Mumbai, Thane and Nashik. “We have already lost 30 per cent of our traditional votes to the MNS,” a leader said.

The BJP, however, thinks that Thackeray’s good work will not go waste. Incidentally, over the past 15 years, the Sena-BJP alliance has fared better in rural rather than urban areas.

Besides the MNS challenge, the saffron alliance will also have to contend with internal clashes. The BJP workers of Guhagar and Achalpur are already up in arms over the party’s decision to hand over their seats to the Sena. In return, the Sena workers are contemplating supporting the MNS in Malabar Hill because the party gave it away to the BJP despite it being an area with a huge number of Maharashtrian voters.