Lanka totters towards war

NEW DELHI: Sri Lanka’s President Mahinda Rajapakse has officially not declared war on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. But, for all practical purposes, the coordinated attack on rebel positions by air, sea, and land, involving artillery duels in the North and East, is nothing short of war.

Does this mean the peace process is thwarted and Sri Lanka faces the prospect of another bloody war? The optimistic answer is no, because neither side can be the outright winner.

President Rajapakse, who comes from the deep South, heartland of the hard-line Sinhala-Buddhist tradition, had no option but to retaliate for the humiliating attack on the country’s army commander.

Yet, decades of fighting have only proved that while the army can take over the Jaffna peninsula, it cannot hold it for long. The army does not have the numbers required to control, and operate in, the LTTE-controlled province. The casualties would be too high to risk such a venture.

It is expected that Sri Lanka will continue the current military thrust, hoping that that the rest of the world will intervene and put back in place the 2002 ceasefire, even with all its aberrations.

The LTTE also recognises that its hold over the northern province notwithstanding, a Tamil homeland without the East will not be enough. The Tigers, despite their remarkable firepower and dedication, are in no position to snatch the eastern province from government forces.

Although the eastern province has a Tamil majority, it also has an enclave of Muslims and Sinhalese who oppose the LTTE. More significantly, Karuna, the former commander of the Tiger’s eastern wing, has broken ranks with Prabhakaran and is fighting his former mentor’s men.  

Indeed, Prabhakaran is upset that Karuna is supported by the Sinhala army.

In this situation, neither Colombo nor the LTTE can afford another decade of fighting. Since September 11, the LTTE has also lost much of international sympathy it had once enjoyed. Violence is no longer justified, however noble the cause.

The LTTE will carry out a few more daring attacks and disclaim responsibility. The government will retaliate each time. But perhaps both sides will return to the table at some point. Good sense, however, does not always prevail.