Why did Kim Jong-il venture out of his cocoon?

HONG KONG: In the isolationist paranoia-filled country that he lords over with an iron hand, Kim Jong-il is venerated as a demigod, and is often credited with supernatural powers. It’s part of a hagiographic image-building exercise that keeps him in power in North Korea.

But this week, the world was witness to a demonstration by the ‘Dear Leader’ of at least one such mythical power: a perceived ability to be in different places at the same time.

Reports from three different countries — South Korea, China and Russia — variously claimed that Kim was in three different places at about the same time.

Kim is believed to have left his country earlier this week under mysterious circumstances, and speculation has revolved around his precise destination and the purpose of his journey.

Reports from South Korea claim that Kim is in Beijing for medical treatment. But a Beijing official was quoted as saying that he was unaware of any visit to China by the North Korean leader.

The Russian news agency, on the other hand, claimed that Kim was still in the North Korean capital Pyongyang, and that it was perhaps a close relative of his that had crossed the border by train.

Meanwhile, in the southern Chinese province of Guangdong, there were intimations of a secretive VIP visit: guests at White Swan, a luxury hotel in the provincial capital Guangzhou, were on Thursday evicted at short notice and accommodated elsewhere.

No explanation was given, but there is believed to be heavy security at the hotel in preparation for an “important meeting”. The South China Morning Post reported that Kim was in Guangzhou and would visit the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (SEZ) on Friday.

The secrecy surrounding Kim’s visit is status quo: but what are the reasons that have induced him to leave his cocoon? Was he here in connection with a fresh round of six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear programme, for which China has been pushing? Or was he, as the South Korean media have claimed, here for medical treatment? Or was it something else altogether.

Sources in Hong Kong who have an ear to the ground say — based on their interactions with critical players involved in the six-party talks — that Kim’s visit may have nothing to do with those talks.

If the focus was on reviving the stalled non-proliferation initiative, Beijing would have sent a deputy to Pyongyang, the sources reasoned. And in any case, even US officials weren’t remotely aware of any proposed talks on the nuclear issue.

The sources say that it’s far more likely that Kim’s presence in Guangzhou, if confirmed, may have one of two objectives: the North Korean leadership is known to have fiduciary interests in the gaming haven of Macau, a Special Administrative Region of China, which is virtually next door to Shenzhen.

And Kim’s visit may have been required to formalise some major transactional activity.

Alternatively, Kim may have come to Shenzhen in order to study its successful SEZ model, which he hopes to replicate back home. China and South Korea favour the establishment of an SEZ on the border between the two Koreas, but Pyongyang would prefer to locate it on the border with China — in part because it “trusts” Beijing rather more.

But Beijing disfavours that location, for fear that it would draw capital away from the industrial area in its northeastern region. Kim’s current visit may be part of a process to take the SEZ initiative forward, perhaps with Beijing’s concurrence this time.