Farm sector gets some cold comfort

The southwest monsoon is approaching the final leg of its four-month phase. Its performance thus far qualifies to be among the best in recent years.  

A good harvest of foodgrains and commercial crops is within reach. This assessment may turn even rosier if the tail-end of the monsoon experiences  a wet spell when most crops reach their ripening state.

The kharif food production is certain to surpass the preceding year’s 111 million tonnes (mt), and, in all probability, may eclipse the previous peak of 117 mt in 2003-04.

Good rains have rendered the prospects brighter for oilseeds and cotton, too- the principal commercial crops. In fact, indications are that their output may also touch a new high.

The farm front radiates optimism. If the end of the season materialises, it would give a fillip to the coming season as well, making the agricultural year, 2007-08, a bountiful one.

This, in turn, means an infusion of purchasing power among the rural masses and a surge in overall economic growth, already on a high orbit. Beyond doubt, the monsoon has fared well. This is despite the breaks in the rainfall situation.

This is not unusual as the monsoon period is not one continuous precipitation. The lull in monsoon, in fact, helps in vigorous photosynthesis and is a factor in the healthy germination of crops. This is precisely what happened during the current season.

Consider the monsoon behaviour from various standpoints. First, most of the states where khairf is the main season, rains have been bountiful. They include West Bengal, Orissa, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala.  In these states, a majority of districts have been blessed with excess or normal rains thus far. In West Bengal, from June 1 to August 22, rainfall has been excessive in 13 of the 17 districts. In Orissa, in 12 out of 30 districts, they were in excess and normal in 17.

There was excess rainfall in 18 out of the 25 districts in Gujarat, while normal precipitation was recorded in the rest. In Karnataka, 26 out of 27 districts experienced excess or normal rains. In Kerala, 10 out of the 14 districts had above normal or normal showers. 

In Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, among other states, in overall terms, the monsoon was good.

The next point to note is that, broadly speaking, the current monsoon is very satisfactory. Twenty nine meteorological subdivisions had received excess or normal rains. This pattern has been repeated in the recent past and certainly better than in 2006 when this figure stood at 24. 

Again, the average quantum of rainfall till August 22, at the all-India level, was 669.6 mm, which was 3% above normal for the period — again a feat never witnessed in the preceding five years.   Finally, the distribution of monsoon rains was also very favourable.  As many as 157 districts, or 31%, of the total had recorded excess precipitation till August 22, while another 197 districts, or 38%, had normal rainfall.

Thus, more than 69% of the total number of districts had sufficient quantum of rainfall which may translate in to an increased size of the crop in these regions.

Even in the remaining districts, though rainfall may be deficient, it was adequately distributed, so that the damage to crop may not be significant to make any dent in the all-India level of production during 2007-08.