US should refrain from helping Musharraf retain power: Schaffer

SILIOCN VALLEY: In order to manage the transition in a post-Musharraf set up and protect America's interest, the United States should refrain from helping Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf to retain his hold on the power, a former US Ambassador has said.

"At some point the pressures in Pakistan will lead to a change in government, and the US will have someone else to work with," a former US ambassador and director of South Asia Program at the Washington- based Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), Teresita Schaffer has said.

"This may take a while, but the trends inexorably point in this direction. If we hold to our present course, the United States will be blamed for the failings of the outgoing regime, as well as for imposing an unpopular government on Pakistan," Schaffer, former US ambassador to Sri Lanka, said in an article for CSIS -- a private institution which focusses on International Public Policy issues.

"The United States needs to manage the transition to an eventual post-Musharraf setup, so as to protect America's enduring interests in this volatile part of the world."

The US, hoping to keep the army general firmly in the saddle and anchored to a moderate partner, backed Musharraf's long-running dialogue with former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, the former ambassador said.

Although some see a Musharraf-Bhutto deal as a transition to democracy but the general's temperament and the logic of his current situation both argue against this, she said.

"Musharraf speaks of 'unity of command' as hallmark of his leadership. That is hard to reconcile with real sharing of power," she said.

"After arresting the leadership of (Nawaz) Sharif's party, would Musharraf and the army allow his other rival to win a major electoral victory?"

The army general has certainly benefited by the divisions among his rival political parties, however, she pointed out that the US will not gain much from its political maneuvering.

"The 'kinder, gentler' government is gone; Musharraf will now rule by more autocratic methods," she said.

"There are ample indications that major demonstrations or a judicial decision invalidating his election in uniform may lead Musharraf to declare the state of emergency Secretary Rice talked him out of a few weeks ago."

Under the current course of the US government, the top American priorities -- Pakistan's participation in US' war against terrorism and its political support in stabilizing Afghanistan -- will become more of a US war from which a new Pakistan government will want to dissociate itself to show country's independence, she said.

The army, she said, will welcome the chance to backout of the "American" operations in the frontier, where they have lost men and prestige.

"Pakistan will be better able to pursue the policies that really matter to us if its leaders are free of the taint of being "Washington's creatures."

Saying that it's not too late for the US to focus on managing the inevitable transition, Schaffer said, "We will of course continue to work closely with Musharraf as long as he is in power. But we should make clear that we will work with anyone who can win a genuinely free election and will fight against terrorists that threaten Pakistan's society."