2007 most peaceful year for J&K

This has been the best year for the troubled state of Jammu and Kashmir where militancy is concerned. Despite occasional and bloody gun battles like the one early this week in which two Army Majors and nine militants were killed, statistics accessed by DNA show a turnaround in the situation.

Many factors have contributed to this reversal. These include the Musharraf regime’s reluctance to allow infiltration across the border and the J&K public’s fatigue with violence, according to senior government officials  These statistics will be presented at a meeting of police chiefs from across the country that is currently going on here. However, it isn’t clear if this huge “peace gain” will be spelt out in such clear terms by the Intelligence Bureau chief during his presentation.

The total number of deaths in militancy-related incidents— including civilians, security force personnel and militants — has dropped to an impressive one-fourth of the annual average (between 1990 and 2006). From the average 2,431 killings per year, the numbers fell to 519 by August 31, 2007. Going by this trend, the total deaths in the state in militancy-related incidents should be less than 800 as 2007 winds up. That is the lowest since 1990.

What further clearly demonstrates the changing pattern is the staggering drop in violent incidents.

For the past 18 years, starting 1990, there have been, on an average, 3,863 incidents a year. This year, by August 31 the total number of incidents is just 796, and this should not exceed 1,200 by the end of the year, statistically. This again marks a drop of more than two-third in the volume of violence in Jammu and Kashmir. And again, this is the lowest figure in the past 18 years.

If there is no spurt in violence in the next three months, 2007 would be the most peaceful year, in all respects, in the nearly two-decade troubled and violent history of Jammu and Kashmir. This is the surest sign that peace is marching forward, say seasoned Kashmir watchers within the security establishment. “There is no doubt that 2007 is a landmark year. The question is how are we going to convert these palpable gains into lasting peace,” says a senior intelligence officer looking after Pakistan and Jammu and Kashmir affairs.

But there is skepticism too, mainly because of the internal political situation in both countries. A politically weakened Prime Minister in New Delhi and a crisis-ridden President in Islamabad would not be able to convert the unbelievable turnaround into long-lasting peace dividends, some observers believe.

Though militancy started sporadically in 1987, it was after the kidnap of Dr Rubaiya Sayeed, daughter of former J&K chief minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, in December 1989 that full-fledged militancy took roots in the Valley. So for all official purposes, the security agencies measure the violence levels from 1990 onwards.