Sonia may have some ‘explaining’ to do

Leading Chinese scholar sees ‘complexities’ in Sino-Indian relations

HONG KONG: Within weeks of facing a domestic political setback following the virtual collapse of the US-India nuclear deal, Congress(I) leader Sonia Gandhi arrived in Beijing on Thursday along with party leaders and son Rahul Gandhi on a visit intended to ease some of the strains in Sino-Indian relations that have been manifest in recent times. 

Although Indian sources have emphasised that Sonia would only give a macro-orientation to Sino-Indian relations in her discusses with the Chinese leadership, and would not address specific irritants in bilateral relations, Chinese observers say that it may be difficult for her to sidestep discordant issues.
 
In particular, leading Beijing-based China scholar and Senior Associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Ding Xueliang told DNA, “the Chinese leadership will want clarifications, explanations” from Sonia on the widely shared perception that India is “building military or strategic connections with some powers” in order to emerge as an Asian “counterweight” to China’s political, economic and military rise. 

China had responded warily to the recent joint navy exercise involving India, the US, Japan, Australia and Singapore, sensing it to be an exercise in “containing” China’s rise.

“Regardless of the stated intention of these countries, the Chinese government will want to go beyond official articulations to get a sense of the real objectives,” says Ding. “This is particularly the case because, the economic and geopolitical competition between China and India will inevitably intensify in the middle to long term.”

In Ding’s reckoning, the Chinese leadership may not be entirely satisfied with proforma reiterations that these naval exercises were not directed against China or any other country. “They will want to hear more than that… India is regarded internationally as one of the most vital allies of the US in Asia.”

Asked if Sonia would be “forced on the defensive” on this issue, Ding said, “She may find it hard to give it a sugar coating.” Sonia may find it easier to defend the Indo-US civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, although it has all but collapsed, notes Ding. Asked if the Chinese side had reason to be happy with the collapse of the deal, he added: “Even if not happy, China will be relieved. In the short term, it is unlikely that a similar agreement can be achieved.”
Sino-Indian relations had entered a “complex” phase, says Ding.
“You cannot say there is perfect harmony, nor can you say the relationship is in trouble.” Given the two countries’ competing need for energy resources to fuel their economic growth, “there are potential tensions ahead.” Plus, there’s the unresolved border dispute. 

But the saving grace, says Ding, is that in recent years, the leadership in both countries had had the political sagacity to “separate the sensitive security issues and territorial dispute from the areas of cooperation on the economic front.” In that sense, Sino-Indian relations were becoming more “differentiated: trouble in one area does not prevent deals and agreements in other areas.”

And although even the booming trade relationship is coming under strain because the trade balance is increasingly weighted in China’s favour, Ding reckons that this is only a short-term trend. “As happened in China’s trade relations with Japan, South East Asia and Europe, the Indian government can find more channels to export to China.”

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