'Sharif return to reshape Pakistan politics'

ISLAMABAD: Former premier Nawaz Sharif's return from exile is set to reshape Pakistan's political landscape, analysts say, further weakening President Pervez Musharraf in the crisis over emergency rule.   

Banished seven years ago, a year after being toppled by the very man he is now about to confront, Sharif poses a potent challenge to the military ruler whether or not he boycotts January 8 general elections.   

The religious conservative was set to fly into the eastern city of Lahore Sunday afternoon from Saudi Arabia where he has been living in exile.   

His return means there would be two former premiers confronting Musharraf, after Benazir Bhutto flew home last month following eight years abroad.   

But Bhutto has been tarnished by having power-sharing talks with Musharraf and lingering suspicion she would be prepared to revive them despite outrage over his state of emergency.   

"The initiative is with neither Bhutto or Musharraf, it is with Sharif and whatever decision he will take," Rais Baksh Rasul, a political scientist with Lahore's University of Management Sciences, said.   

"This is a big win for democracy in the country and it is going to change drastically the political landscape," she said of Sharif's return.   

Bhutto and Sharif have been in telephone talks as they try to formulate a joint anti-Musharraf strategy, including the crucial question of whether they should order their parties to boycott the January vote.   

Sharif is said to be in favour of a boycott and Bhutto in favour of taking part. They run Pakistan's two largest opposition parties, and any decision to stay away would render a vote meaningless.   

If Sharif wins the boycott argument, "it will go a long way in convincing the international community and Musharraf that it is time and more for the general to bid farewell, and not only to arms," said ex-brigadier Shaukat Qadir.   

Even if he contests the vote, said Qadir, founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Sharif "may turn out to be the dark horse, which is what Musharraf gravely apprehends."   

Weakened by sustained global criticism of his emergency rule, anger at his sacking of top judges and daily protests at curbs on the media, Musharraf was effectively pushed into a corner over Sharif, analysts said.   

Having allowed Bhutto to return in October, he was rebuffed by the Saudis last week when he tried to persuade them not to let Sharif leave.   

"In this one he really had no choice because he had earlier promised the Saudis that neither would be allowed back," said Najam Sethi, editor of the respected Daily Times newspaper and a political analyst.   

To manage the situation, Pakistan's powerful intelligence chief Nadeem Taj struck an "understanding" with Sharif, a senior government official said.   

Quite what that understanding is remains unclear: one report suggests it could be that Sharif allows his party to join the election, which with Bhutto also in would let Musharraf portray them as free and credible.   

A combined opposition could leave Musharraf's party short of the seats it needs for a majority, in turn raising fears of a rigged vote.   

"Musharraf has manipulated everything to stay in power," said Rasul. "Why would he not manipulate the elections to get favourable results?"   

"He has lost complete control over everything. The last defence he had was that he would not allow Sharif to return to Pakistan but he is so much weaker that he could not prevent it."   

"Even if he sends Sharif to prison it will not help him calm the political situation because civil society, the media, lawyers are up against him."   

Sethi, of the Daily Times, agreed.   

"Clearly, Musharraf is not as powerful as he was once, and every day his opponents are gaining ground. He is having to make adjustments.   

"He is inclined now to allow the opposition to play its role, but within a broader understanding that he would not allow them to overthrow him."