Pak could enter an unstable phase

DNA Analysis

With the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, Pakistan enters a new phase of uncertainty and instability. It is today a country in the throes of a deep existential crisis.

It is seen by the world as being a haven for terrorist groups, random bombings have now become routine and democratic institutions have been undermined by its rulers — dangerous at any time, but more scary considering it has nuclear weapons that could fall into the wrong hands. And now, a sliver of hope for the return of some form of democracy has been almost wiped out.

Violence was a part of the Bhutto legacy. Zulfiqar Bhutto was hanged, his two sons died in mysterious circumstances and now his favourite child, Benazir, has been assassinated.

A portent of the tragedy to come was seen when her arrival in Pakistan in October, after long years in exile, was met with a bomb blast that left 140 people dead.

She escaped on that occasion but this time round she was not so lucky. Terrorist attacks and suicide bombings are endemic in Pakistan and she had been warned that she was a target — an earlier rally in Rawalpindi had to be cancelled — but she had ploughed on, eager to connect with her people after the hiatus of over a decade.

Though the corruption charges against her were dropped, the taint never went away. Yet, her return was welcomed by her supporters and had galvanised the Pakistan People’s Party. But not everyone was pleased.

Pervez Musharraf, who worked out a deal with her which enabled her to return, was getting impatient with her and different sections, ranging from the Islamic parties to extremist elements, were suspicious of her because they felt she was backed by the Americans. In addition, these forces were against democracy of any kind.

Though the elections, due in less than two weeks, would at best legitimise the sham democracy that Musharraf has crafted, it would still mean that the benighted country would get some sort of people’s representation.

Musharraf has trampled over every norm and agency in his bid to remain in power; the judiciary was his latest target. If not for the Bush administration, which has invested in Musharraf in a big way, the general would have been out a long time ago.

Benazir represented some hope that some democratic norms would be re-established and the voice of the people would be heard. It is difficult to say who, if anyone, will step into that space.

Indeed, it is difficult to conjecture whether the elections will go ahead. Pakistan is delicately poised at a very precarious abyss and India will have to be alert and keep a very close watch on developments in the neighbouring country.