Days of thunder

For the past four years, it’s been an easy toss up in the men’s draw. There was Roger Federer on one side, and the rest of the draw on the other. Yes, he did lose to Marat Safin in the semifinal of 2005, but it was a great match and there were match points for both.

So… But after the tumultuous events of 2008, the champion lost the first Slam of the year, his Wimbledon crown, the number one ranking and his Masters crown as well.
So (again) now we enter the Australian Open with an intriguingly lip-licking situation.

There’s the number one player in the world, Rafael Nadal, who just managed to get to the semis last year for first time, losing to Jo-Wilfred Tsonga. There’s the defending champion Novak Djokovic, who won the first Slam of 2008 and the last event of the year but not enough in between, which means he’s not coming in the favourite.

There’s the greatest player in the world who had one of the worst years of his life, by his standards (what! Only one Grand Slam). And the Challenger Andy Murray, who seems to sweeping aside everything in his path, especially if it’s called Roger Federer and often when it’s called Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic as well.

Then here’s the question, is normal service going to be resumed in 2009?  Let’s look at it this way: if you’re a gambler, you might as well bet on Ernests Gulbis because if you turn out to be right, you could win a ton of money. On the other hand, the gap between the oldies and the new guard is narrowing. Juan Martin del Potro, Marin Cilic, Gilles Simon, Gaels Monfils, Tsonga, the wonder of a couple of years ago, Marcos Baghdatis — these are all players who’re raring to go. The warhorses remain as well — Carlos Moya, Lleyton Hewitt, Andy Roddick, Juan Carlos Ferrero, all of them Grand Slam winners.

But finally, it will come down to the big names and for them it’s in their heads. Does Federer still want it so bad? How much Nadal does want a hard court win. For Djokovic, the situation is a bit dire — he has to defend 2000 points, he has to prove wrong the naysayers who think he’s a great tennis player but may not have the staying power to go much further. He’s in a pressure cooker. For Andy Murray, it’s a win-win (and win again) position. What does he have to lose? Nothing. What does he have to gain? Whatever he achieves will be a gain. He has it all going for him.

So the money has to be here. I would put my money on Federer no matter what — he is still a better, greater, higher achiever tennis player than all the rest. He seems to have come back into the season with a bounce in his step and his early loss to Murray in Doha was a reminder of what he can’t allow to happen any more. After him, the deluge.
The women’s game, though, remains a fascinatingly wide open field. The number one player, Jelena Jankovic has never won a Slam.

The defending champion Maria Sharapova is not here. Last year’s runner up, Ana Ivanovic has had a horrible injury-filled year and is seeded 5 here. And the two best women tennis players in the world keep winning the big matches though they bounce about the rankings in a manner unbefitting to their prowess and achievements. They remain as infuriating, exciting, strong, powerful and supreme as ever. The Williams sisters can never be underestimated and never be counted out. The worse you think of Venus and Serena, the better they’re likely to do.

The contenders are many, from Dinara Safina and the rest of the Russian brigade, the Radwanska sisters, the Chinese challenge, though they have been lying low for a while. The old favourites are still there. A few Grand Slam champions, from Svetlana Kuznetsova to Amelie Mauresmo pepper the draw. But like Federer in the men’s, you have to factor in the Williams’ sisters here. And watch every game carefully, because this year, everywhere you look, a possible champion lurks.