The biggest battle is in Uttar Pradesh

With 80 Lok Sabha seats, Uttar Pradesh is the biggest electoral battlefield in India. The state can be divided into five distinct regions, mainly on the basis of geographical, linguistic and socio-economic variations. UP’s political scenario has also changed drastically since the 2004 Lok Sabha election. Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh was chief minister then. Now, his bête noire BSP chief Mayawati is in the saddle. How does that change things? DNA takes stock.

West UP: 19 seats 
This is the wild west of UP, known as much for its prosperity as for its fast crime. It shares its border with Haryana and Delhi and has been the karmabhoomi of formidable Jat farmer leader and former PM the late Chaudhary Charan Singh. His son and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) chief Ajit Singh remains a force to reckon with despite frequent party-hopping. He was with Mulayam in 2004, but has tied up with the BJP this time. In the 2007 assembly election, the BSP managed to dent the SP’s Muslim vote bank. Three party chiefs Mulayam, Rajnath and Ajit Singh are in the fray

Power vote bank: Jats and Dalits

How parties stand: Kalyan-factor will help the SP retain ground. The BSP is fighting to do well. The BJP is likely to grow. The Congress could retain tally

Decisive issues: ‘Harit Pradesh’ (statehood), a separate high court bench, sugarcane prices, farmers’ welfare

Must watch: Mulayam Singh (SP,  Mainpuri), Rajnath Singh (BJP, Ghaziabad), Ajit Singh (RLD,  Baghpat), Salman Khurshid (Cong,  Farrukhabad), Kalyan Singh
(Ind, Etah), Raj Babbar (Cong, Fatehpur Sikri)

Ruhelkhand: 10 seats
This region, which includes Rampur with the highest Muslim concentration (42%) in UP, is considered the barometer of Muslim politics. The SP’s strong Muslim base has helped it retain the lead. Since it is a communally-sensitive area, it also helps the BJP. The Hindu hysteria generated by Varun Gandhi will help the saffron brigade. It’s the rice bowl of UP. Rampur is in the news due to SP leader Mohd Azam Khan who has rebelled against party nominee Jaya Prada.

Power vote bank: Muslims

How parties stand: BJP renegade Kalyan Singh is with the SP. This could harm the BJP to the SP’s advantage. The BSP has failed to dent the SP’s Muslim vote bank. Congress presence is limited to Rampur.

Decisive issues: Hindutva and minority welfare

Must watch: Jaya Prada (SP, Rampur), Begum Noor Bano (Cong, Rampur), Varun Gandhi (BJP, Pilibhit), Maneka Gandhi (BJP, Aonla)

Central UP: 15 seats
This is the heart of UP. It has witnessed the rise and fall of Indira Gandhi in Rae Bareli, from where Congress chief Sonia Gandhi is now seeking a re-election. Capital Lucknow was till now former PM AB Vajpayee’s territory from where the grand old man of the BJP won five times in a row since 1991. This time, his loyal aide Lalji Tandon is fighting to retain his legacy. The BJP has suffered a huge decimation in this region, reduced to one seat in 2004 from 10 in 1998 

Power vote bank: Upper castes and Dalits

How parties stand: The BJP has virtually been wiped out, while the BSP has gained solid ground. It’s a challenge before the SP to retain its tally, while the BJP claws its way back

Decisive issues: Infrastructure, development

Must watch: Sonia Gandhi (Rae Bareli), Lalji Tandon (Lucknow)

East UP: 32 seats
This is the most backward part of UP, though it boasts of five PMs — Nehru, Shastri, Rajiv Gandhi, VP Singh and Chandra Shekhar. The region accounts for the biggest chunk of seats in UP and whoever wins here, virtually wins the state. East UP is a cauldron of mafiadom, religion and casteist politics. It is these curses which have prevented its development

Power vote bank: Backward castes

How parties stand: SP is the strongest. The BJP has been losing badly, while the BSP is steadily gaining ground. BJP is expected to make a dramatic comeback

Decisive issues: Hindutva, development

Must watch: Rahul Gandhi (Cong, Amethi), Mahant Adityanath (BJP, Gorakhpur), MM Joshi (BJP, Varanasi), Sanjay Singh (Cong, Sultanpur)

Bundelkhand: 4 seats
This is the land of Laxmibai, the Rani of Jhansi. The region echoes with ballads hailing the valour of Rajput Bundela warriors who fought the British and the Moghuls. The area has hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons — bandits, droughts, and extreme socio-economic disparity. The demand for a separate state, which also includes some districts of neighbouring Madhya Pradesh, has been simmering for quite some time. Dacoits such as Dadua and Thokia, who enjoyed political patronage, kept development and prosperity away from the region for decades. Though both are now dead, several small gangs are still active. Rahul Gandhi’s visits and promises have kindled some hope among the people of this otherwise godforsaken region.

Power vote bank: Backward castes and Dalits (scheduled castes)

How parties stand: The BJP has lost ground as the SP and the BSP have dug in their heels. It’s a direct SP-BSP contest
here.

Decisive issues: Statehood, water scarcity

Must watch: None