Pawar march: Left, right, left

His own Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) may not even reach the double-digit mark but Sharad Pawar harbours prime ministerial ambitions, pinning his hope on below-par performance by the Big Two — the Congress and the BJP.

Most of the exit polls, conducted by psephologists for various private news channels, have not been kind to either the Congress or the BJP, giving them below 160 seats in the next Lok Sabha. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) do not seem to tally more than 180-odd seats, if the exit polls were to be believed.

In such a scenario, Pawar is keeping his options — and his network — alive with the regional forces to consolidate the Third Front, and then make the pitch for the country’s topmost slot. Some “realistic” partymen — and also from the state Congress — feel if nothing else, Pawar’s efforts to bring together these forces to form a non-BJP, non-Congress government and keeping it going could result in his getting a prominent ministry in the cabinet.

NCP itself is expected to get barely nine seats — and at best 12 — of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra. However, the consortium of regional parties, led by the Left front, enables the NCP leader to garner support of 175 MPs across the country, making their number almost equivalent to the other two major formations.

The statistics doled out by Pawar camp is based on support from non-BJP and non-Congress forces. Shiv Sena leader Manohar Joshi has already pledged support to Pawar as the next prime minister if LK Advani fails to make it. Mulayam Singh Yadav (SP) will throw his lot with third front if it promises to block Mayawati’s rise at the Centre. Or for that matter, Mayawati could be one of the cogs in the Pawar-Left front machine, and keep Yadav at bay.

According to an NCP strategist, “Politics is not necessarily driven by logic and arithmetic. You also require chemistry.”

As Dilip Walse-Patil, state finance minister and a close Pawar aide, explains, “If Third Front takes centrestage ultimately the individual’s acceptance within regional forces will matter. In politics you cannot discount anything till the end.”

In south Pawar’s best bet is AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa who has indicated she has no problems supporting Pawar. Naveen Patnaik (Biju Janata Dal) and Mamata Banerjee (Trinamool Congress) are also potential partners who could be wooed by the NCP. Pawar had already aligned with BJD in Orissa for LS and assembly polls.