Rahul leads Congress revival in heartland

It’s a grand comeback story for the Congress in Uttar Pradesh and the success is being attributed to the Rahul Gandhi factor.

The Congress’s performance in this state, considred politically the most important since it sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, and where for two decades the party has been completely marginalised, has taken all by surprise. The Congress resurgence hurts the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is ruling the state, besides laying low the hopes of the Bharaitya Janata Party (BJP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP), both hoping to make gains in the state.

The last time the party came close to such numbers was in 1989 when the party won 18 seats. In 2004, it won just nine. “Everyone failed to notice the undercurrent in favour of the Congress and the Rahul factor, which did wonders for us,” says state Congress spokesman Dwijendra Tripathi.

It would appear that Uttar Pradesh citizens’s overriding sentiment was to back a national party and the the aggressive campaign run by Rahul Gandhi helped. In hindsight, one can say Rahul’s speeches—with a personal touch and high on emotional content—had the desired effect. The youngsters specially seem to have rooted for the Congress. In the process, long-standing votebanks were destroyed.

Mulayam seems to have lost a huge chunk of his Muslim votebank to the Congress while the so-called upper castes have doubtlessly ditched the BJP. The Congress would also have taken away a considerable portion of the BSP’s most backward castes (MBC) and the non-Chamar Dalits.

Wherever the Congress put up a strong candidate, the party got overwhelming, and unexpected, support. In Lucknow, for instance, state Congress president Rita Bahuguna Joshi was declared a candidate just days before the nominations closed. From a dark horse, she emerged as the main challenger to the BJP’s Lalji Tandon, though she finally lost. This, incidentally, was a seat won by Atal Behari Vajpayee for five terms from 1991 to 2004.

Why was the BSP’s performance so poor? For two years as UP chief minister, Mayawati has done nothing to anger any caste, community or voting group. The law and order situation is better than it was in Mulayam Singh Yadav’s era, and people feel that Mayawati gets things done.

But she perhaps went wrong in her campaign which was largely negative. Either she was lambasting Mulayam or hitting out at the Congress. People, especially the youth, seem to have rejected her outbursts against Rahul Gandhi, ridiculing him for breaking bread with Dalits or playing with Dalit children.

Both Mayawati and Mulayam would now have to pick up the pieces. Their immediate priority will be save their votebanks from being gobbled up by the Congress which is on the ascendent. The BJP, which has been trounced, will have to perhaps start by making itself relevant once more in the state.