European Union on course to lift Belarus sanctions despite vote concerns

Belarus's election fell short of democratic standards, monitors said on Monday after President Alexander Lukashenko won a fifth term, but Europe still looked set to ease sanctions as France and Germany welcomed a lack of political repression.

Moves by Lukashenko, including the pardoning of six opposition figures before the election, suggest Lukashenko could be seeking to improve his image abroad to rely less on his ally Russia, which is under Western sanctions due to the Ukraine conflict. "It is clear that Belarus still has a long way to go towards fulfilling its democratic commitments," said Kent Hasted, head of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe's observer mission for the election, in a statement. "The recent release of political prisoners and a welcoming approach to observers were positive developments. However, the hope that this gave us for broader electoral progress was largely unfulfilled," it said.

He expressed particular disappointment over shortcomings during the counting and tabulation of votes. On Sunday Lukashenko said Belarus had fulfilled all commitments for free and fair elections. He won by a landslide 83.5%. Still, the European Union is expected to suspend its sanctions on Lukashenko and his supporters in response to the freeing of six political prisoners in August, a long-held demand of the 28-nation bloc, although the decision is set to come later in October.

Even if the elections were not seen as democratic by the OSCE, the European Union was initially braced for worse, namely the kind of crackdowns that have followed Belarus' elections in 2010. The EU has warned Lukashenko that sanctions relief depended on a peaceful electoral process, diplomats said.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told reporters at a meeting with his EU peers in Luxembourg that the apparent lack of repression against political groups opened the way for sanctions to be suspended for four months. "There have been changes in Belarus, compared to the two past elections," he said. "If Belarus stays on this path, there is a willingness, and there is unanimity on this, to change the relationships with Belarus," he said referring to sanctions.

France's minister for European affairs, Harlem Desir, echoed that, saying Paris also wanted to encourage any opening in Belarus, while also warning that any backsliding on human rights would also mean sanctions being reimposed.

Economic boost

Diplomats say the EU's list of around 140 individuals will be suspended from the end of October until the end of February, allowing those in question to move their money around and travel again. An arms embargo will remain.

However, the European Union will keep the sanctions under review. The suspensions could be allowed to expire if Belarus is seen as committing fresh rights abuses. Four members of Lukashenko's security services, suspected of being behind the disappearances of political opponents, will remain under sanctions.

The lifting of restrictions would be a boost for Belarus's economy, which has been battered by a currency crisis in Russia, its main ally and key trading partner. It could also pave the way for increased foreign investment. Belarus' gross domestic product shrank by 3.5% in the January-August period and the average monthly wage has fallen by about a third in dollar terms since the start of the year to $420.