India-specific Afghan policy in the works; China wants New Delhi to play an active role, post NATO pull-out

The country is, for the first time, putting in place an India-centric Afghanistan policy. The Modi government has entrusted National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval with the task of drawing up a strategic and security policy to deal with emerging geo-politics.

The move follows apprehensions that Indian interests could take a hit after a NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) pull-out of Afghanistan in December 2014. The recent appearance of an al Qaeda video, which says jihad will be extended to India, Bangladesh and Myanmar, is also said to be behind the move.
It is also, perhaps, for the first time in recent history that the home ministry is being made a part of such an exercise, which, until now, has only been the domain of the ministry of external affairs.

What is the NSA's plan?
The NSA, sources say, has started working with key officials of the home ministry, external affairs ministry and central security agencies to draw up a new policy. This policy will analyse the fallout of the NATO pullout on Indian security and business interests, and will also pen down a strategy to deal with various scenarios and possible Indian intervention.

What prompted the sudden shift?
"A Pakistan-supported Taliban takeover of Afghanistan could have serious repercussions on India's strategic interests, not only in Afghanistan but on the western borders in the future. A popular unity government, having elements of the good Taliban, would serve Indian interests well. We need to play out our role now," says a highly placed official.

What's the American plan?
The US plan is to reduce the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, currently around 44,000, to 9,800 by the end of 2014 and nil by the end of 2016.

This is new. Is China also supporting India?
"It appears Americans are keen to entrust India with an important role in Afghanistan. China too, perhaps, is thinking on these lines after facing problems in Xinjiang. The recent visit of external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj to Afghanistan, where she emphasised that India was there to stay, sends an important feeler," says T P Sreenivasan, former Indian ambassador to the UN in Vienna. He feels some active intervention by India is important to keep Afghanistan in a healthy state.

How will a new policy help India?
Veteran security expert and former head of RAW A K Dulat says: "So far, our Afghanistan policy has been NATO- and US-dependent. It's high time we changed this and made our own policy for Afghanistan. It may augur well for us." He, however, does not read much into the al Qaeda video. "It is a fig of imagination. It's an idea now and needs more substance to be an actual threat. Where are the footprints on the ground?" he adds.

What's the best option for India?
"The best-case scenario for India is a unity government in Afghanistan, even if it has the presence of what the US thinks "good Taliban". The situation can alter drastically, kind of a worst-case scenario for India, if the Taliban takes over Afghanistan. This will destabilise regional geo-politics and make India's western borders very active and unsafe. All this is hypothetical now, but, yes, a possibility, if things do not turn up well," says Sreenivasan.

What's the Pak angle?
The current geo-political situation in the region, especially with a weak Pakistan, makes India's role all the more crucial in the region. Security expert Dr Ajai Sahni feels if a Pakistan, that is in turmoil now, plays with fire and tries to make Afghanistan a satellite state, it may create serious problems for India. The need for a comprehensive policy is very crucial, as the fallout of a post-NATO pullout could be both very advantageous and dangerous for India, experts say.