Afghanistan turns to Pakistan

General David H Petraeus, the new United States and Nato war commander, said India had “legitimate interests” in Afghanistan, but the words will not allay terrorism-wracked India’s worst fears.

The Pakistani and Afghan governments appear to have turned to each other as a way of hedging their bets against a possible US withdrawal. This could leave India dealing single-handedly with resurgent Islamist forces. 

The Washington Post reported on Thursday that Afghan president Hamid Karzai has agreed to send a group of military officers to Pakistan for training, a significant policy shift that Afghan and Pakistani officials said signals deepening relations between the long-wary neighbours.

“The move is a victory for Pakistan, which seeks a major role in Afghanistan as officials in both countries become increasingly convinced that the US war effort there is faltering.

Afghan officials said Karzai has begun to see Pakistan as a necessary ally in ending the war through negotiation with the Taliban or on the battlefield,” the newspaper said.

Building Afghanistan’s weak army is a key component of US strategy; more than 300 Afghan soldiers are being trained under bilateral agreements in other countries, including Turkey and India, said the paper.

But Pakistan has been pushing for months for a training deal and now Afghan officers will be part of the new training agreement.

Details are being worked out, but the programme is expected to begin soon.

The previously unpublicised training is likely to be controversial among some Afghans who see Pakistan as a “Taliban puppet-master” rather than as a cooperative neighbour, and by New Delhi, which is wary of Pakistan’s intentions in Afghanistan.

Pakistan is facilitating an all-out reconciliation between Karzai and the Taliban in an effort to outmaneuver India, a strategy that doesn’t really have Washington’s approval. The Post said that some US officials have expressed similar wariness about Pakistan’s intentions. “What the Pakistanis and the Taliban want,” one said, “is a cleaning of the house,” including replacement of the Afghan officer corps, currently dominated by ethnic Tajiks whom Pakistan sees as hostile to its interests.

Analysts have argued that the US goal should be a sovereign Afghanistan, not the creation of an anti-Indian Pakistani satellite state. “To this end, the US and Nato should encourage India and other regional powers to play a greater role in shaping Afghanistan’s future and in setting the terms for a gradual US-Nato withdrawal.

So far, Indian assistance to Kabul has consisted of $1.2 billion in economic aid and police training, but it could offer a valuable addition to the currently ineffectual US-Nato effort to train the Afghan army,” Selig Harrison wrote in the Newsweek.  

Pakistan and Afghanistan have a contentious past as the border between them is disputed. Afghans also resent Pakistan’s support for the Taliban government during the 1990s and its tolerance of Taliban sanctuaries.

But as they have assessed coalition prospects in the war, Kabul and Islamabad appear to have turned to each other as a way of hedging their bets.