Support for the ruling Labor government dropped three points in a month to 47% on a two-party basis, a poll found, showing Rudd was losing votes as he pushes for a controversial 40% tax on mining profits.
Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd could lose elections later this year after a dramatic fall in support, two new opinion polls found on Monday, putting pressure on the government to reach a deal on its new mining tax.
Support for the ruling Labor government dropped three points in a month to 47% on a two-party basis, a Nielsen poll in Fairfax newspapers found, showing Rudd was losing votes as he pushes for a controversial 40% tax on mining profits.
Tony Abbott's conservative opposition was on a election winning 53%, the poll found, although the Greens were big winners in the drop in primary support for the government, up two points in the month to 15%.
"The mining tax is bleeding Labor nationally, not just in affected areas," Age newspaper political editor Michelle Grattan wrote. "The results emphasise the government's need to sort out its final position soon, but Rudd has been in no hurry."
Voters also appeared to back the opposition's hardline stance on asylum seekers, while there was also dissatisfaction with the government's scrapping of a carbon emissions scheme.
Financial markets have so far shown little reaction to polls showing a slide in support for Rudd. Sydney's benchmarket share index was down around 3% and the Australian dollar was also under pressure on Monday, but this was linked mainly to concerns over the global economy and European debt worries.
The next election is likely around October this year, and will be partly fought over the new mining tax, which underpins Rudd's strategy to boost retirement incomes and wipe out the fiscal deficit by 201213.
There are unlikely to be major differences on many core economic policies, but the opposition has promised to abandon the tax if it wins office, while also refusing to consider an emissions trading programme.
A second poll, a Newspoll commissioned by the mining industry and published in the Australian newspaper, was conducted in nine key marginal seats, and found the mining tax could cost Rudd the next election.
It found 48% opposed the mining tax, while only 28% were in favour, while almost one in three said they were less likely to vote for Labor because of the tax.
The Nielsen poll found despite the fall in government support, Rudd remains preferred prime minister with 49% support, compared to 39% for Tony Abbott.
Pollster John Stirton said the results appeared to signal a protest vote against Rudd, but a protest that is now big enough to tip Labor out of office if it continued through to election day.
Rudd acknowledged the results on Monday and said he now needed to work harder to explain his policies, although he stood firm on his plan for the mining tax, which is due to start in July 2012.
"The reason for this reform, the reason for this big reform, is to keep our economy strong and globally competitive for the future. That is why we are doing it," Rudd told Australian radio.
"The other reason, of course, is to ensure that all Australians get a fair share from the resources which they, the Australian people, ultimately own."
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