Finding on Himalayas 'poorly substantiated': Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The UN climate change panel today admitted that the conclusion on disappearance of Himalayan glaciers by 2035 in its last report was based on "poorly substantiated" estimates and expressed regret for the same.

However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stood by its overall conclusion on the accelerated melting of glaciers in major mountain ranges like Himalayas, Hindukush and Andes throughout the 21st century.

"It has recently come to our attention that a paragraph in the 938 page Working Group II contribution to the underlying assessment refers to poorly substantiated estimates of rate of recession and date for the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers," an IPCC statement said in Geneva.

"The Chair, Vice Chair and Co Chairs of the IPCC regret the poor application of well established procedures in this instance," it said.

"This episode demonstrates that the quality of the assessment depends on absolute adherence to the IPCC standards, including thorough review of 'the quality and validity of each source before incorporating results from the source in an IPCC report'.

"We reaffirm our strong commitment to ensuring this level of performance," the statement said. The paragraph in question in the Fourth Assessment report of the IPCC states that the possibility of Himalayan glaciers "disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high."

The IPCC, however, stood by its conclusion that climate change was expected to exacerbate current stresses on water resources from population growth and economic and land-use change, including urbanisation.

"On a regional scale, mountain snow pack, glaciers and small ice caps play a crucial role in freshwater availability.  Widespread mass losses from glaciers and reductions in snow cover over recent decades are projected to accelerate throughout the 21st Century, reducing water availability, hydropower potential, and changing seasonality of flows in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges (eg Hindu-Kush, Himalaya, Andes), where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives," it said.

"This conclusion is robust, appropriate, and entirely consistent with the underlying science and the broader IPCC assessment," the IPCC statement said. Questions were being raised about the IPCC claim that the Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035 but they become more persistent when the Indian Government issued a report by glaciologist VK Raina that stated that there were no scientific evidence of glacier melting due to global warming.

It said, "some glaciers were melting while many were advancing also. There is no scientific proof that the Himalayan glaciers will melt by 2035 as claimed by the IPCC." Initially, IPCC chairman Pachauri dismissed the claim but had to later swallow his words saying that "there were some error on the part of the UN panel."