Leaked NATO cables provide chilling picture of Pakistan's precarious position

Despite their goody-goody public statements about Pakistan, American military analysts drew an alarming picture of the state of the country in private briefings with their allies, according to secret documents released by WikiLeaks.

An assessment in late 2008 — which termed Pakistan's position as "precarious" and explained its strategy of supporting terrorism — was so cynical that many of the USA's NATO allies called it "chilling” and “unrelentingly gloomy”, according to one leaked cable.

"[US national intelligence officer (NIO) for South Asia Peter Lavoy] commented on two causes of instability in western Pakistan that could cause Pakistan to completely lose control of its Pashtun territories over the next few years," the cable, sent from the US-led
military alliance NATO to Washington, DC, said.

The primary reason was that the Punjabi-dominated Pakistani government has traditionally neglected its western areas, which are dominated by Pashtun tribes — the ethnic group that also dominates Afghanistan.

Years of neglect have resulted in the breakdown of traditional Pashtun tribal bodies. The situation is exacerbated by the lack of a clear policy to deal with the problems of illiteracy, unemployment, and disaffected youth in the area.

"Both of these situations play to the advantage of insurgent and extremist groups," the cable pointed out.

The other reason for instability is the presence of al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Interestingly, the NIO pointed out that Pakistan was in a catch-22 situation — neither able to embrace the terrorists openly nor able to destroy them.

"Urging militant groups to be outwardly focused... is perceived by
Pakistani officials as a method to safeguard internal security...
Pakistani officials think that if militant groups were not attacking
in Afghanistan, they would seek out Pakistani targets," he pointed
out, according to the cable.

Lavoy was clear that Pakistan was supporting terrorists and explained the other reasons for the move. "Although Pakistan now identifies both al-Qaida and the Taliban as existential threats," the cable quoted Lavoy as saying, "Pakistani government institutions still support the Taliban in two key ways. They permit the Quetta Taliban Shura [the Taliban leadership council] to operate unfettered in Baluchistan province. The ISI provides intelligence and financial support to insurgent groups — especially the Jalaluddin Haqqani network out of Miram Shah, North Waziristan — to conduct attacks in Afghanistan against Afghan government, ISAF, and Indian targets," Lavoy told NATO military leaders.

Lavoy, however, credited the government of Pakistan with at least trying to sever all ties with the extremists. "After the storming of Lal Masjid [the Red Mosque in Islamabad] in July 2007, the Pakistani government had tried to sever ties with insurgent groups that its government institutions had cultivated over three decades. When militants sought al-Qaida support and launched a wave of attacks against Pakistani government and security personnel, Pakistan realized it had lost control of these insurgent groups. Pakistan rapidly approached the various militant groups to reach domestic non-aggression deals," he pointed out.

He added that Pakistan continues to support the Taliban because it believes it will prevail in the long term, Also, it hopes to use the Taliban to checkmate India's influence in Afghanistan.

"Pakistan’s population is becoming less and les educated, the country lacks sufficient energy and clean water resources to serve its population, and there is minimal foreign investment... despite pending economic catastrophe, Pakistan is producing nuclear weapons at a faster rate than any other country in the world," the US military officer pointed out.