Pak Army trying to get Qaeda ally into post-war Afghan setup

The Pakistani Army is trying to exploit the troubled US military efforts in Afghanistan to sew up a deal with Afghanistan's president to incorporate the Haqqani network in the war-ravaged country's post-war set-up.

Army chief General Parvez Ashfaq Kayani and his spy chief, Lt Gen Ahmad Shuja Pasha, are shuttling between Islamabad and Kabul to broker a deal with Hamid Karzai to incorporate the Pakistani ISI's long-time 'asset' Haqqani network in a deal on the war-torn country.

The Pakistani generals are telling Karzai that they agree with his assessment that the US cannot win in Afghanistan and a post-war set-up in the country should include the Haqqanis — who have given protection to the al-Qaeda leadership for almost nine years now, The New York Times reported today quoting highly placed Afghan and Pakistani officials.

The Haqqani network has long been Pakistan's crucial anti-India asset and has remained virtually untouched by Pakistani forces in their redoubt inside Pakistan, in the tribal areas on the Afghan border, even as the Americans have pressed Pakistan for an offensive against it.

The Americans have long had a suspicion that the Pakistanis were holding the Haqqanis in reserve for such a moment, as a lever to shape the outcome of the war in their favour.

This scenario is being watched with nervousness in Washington as it would give Islamabad important influence in Kabul, but undermine US interest, the paper said.

The dismissal of Gen Stanley A McChrystal will almost certainly embolden the Pakistanis in their plan as they detect increasing American uncertainty, Pakistani officials said.

Gen Kayani preferred Gen McChrystal to his successor, Gen David H Petraeus, whom he considers more of a politician than a military strategist, said people who had spoken recently with
the Pakistani army chief.

Pakistan is presenting itself as the new viable partner for Afghanistan to president Karzai, whose relations with the Americans have soured.

Pakistani officials say they can deliver the network of Sirajuddin Haqqani, an ally of al-Qaeda who runs a major part of the insurgency in Afghanistan, into a power-sharing arrangement.

In addition, Afghan officials say, the Pakistanis are pushing various other proxies, with Gen Kayani personally offering to broker a deal with the Taliban leadership.

The two Pakistani generals are scheduled to fly to Kabul on Monday.

Gen Petraeus told Congress last week that Haqqani fighters were responsible for recent major attacks in Kabul and on the Bagram air base in Afghanistan, adding that he had informed Gen Kayani.

Some officials in the Obama administration have not ruled out incorporating the Haqqani network in an Afghan settlement, though they stress that president Obama's policy calls for al-Qaeda to be separated from the network.

American officials remain sceptical, however, if that can be accomplished.

Richard C Holbrooke, the Obama administration’s special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan, said on a visit to Islamabad last weekend that it was "hard to imagine" the Haqqani network in an Afghan arrangement, but added, "Who knows?"

At a briefing this week at the headquarters of Pakistan's premier spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistani analysts laid out a view of the war that dovetailed neatly with the doubts expressed by Karzai.

They depicted a stark picture of an American military campaign in Afghanistan "that will not succeed".

They said the Taliban were gaining strength. Despite the impending arrival of new American troops, they concluded the "security situation would become more dangerous", resulting in an erosion of the American will to fight.

"That is the reason why Karzai is trying to negotiate now," a senior analyst said.

Gen Pasha, the ISI chief, dashed to Kabul on the eve of Karzai's visit to Washington in May, an American official said. Neither Karzai nor the Pakistanis spoke to the Americans about incorporating the Haqqanis in a post-war Afghanistan, the official said.

Pakistan has already won what it sees as an important concession in Kabul, the resignations this month of the intelligence chief, Amrullah Saleh, and the interior minister,  Hanif Atmar.

The two officials, favoured by Washington, were viewed by Pakistan as major obstacles to its vision of hard-core Taliban fighters being part of an Afghanistan settlement, though the circumstances of their resignations did not suggest any connection with Pakistan.

Coupled with their strategic interests, the Pakistanis say they have chosen this juncture to open talks with Karzai because, even before the controversy over Gen McChrystal, they sensed uncertainty — "a lack of fire in the belly," said one Pakistani — within the Obama administration over the Afghan fight.

"The American timetable for getting out makes it easier for Pakistan to play a more visible role," said Maj Gen Athar Abbas, the spokesperson for the Pakistani Army. He was referring to the July 2011 date set by Obama for the start of the withdrawal of some American combat troops.

The offer by Pakistan to make the Haqqanis part of the solution in Afghanistan has now been adopted as basic Pakistani policy, said Rifaat Hussain, a professor of international relations at Islamabad University, and a confidant of top military generals.

"The establishment thinks that without getting Haqqani on board, efforts to stabilise the situation in Afghanistan will be doomed," Hussain said.

"Haqqani has a large fighting force, and by co-opting him into a power-sharing arrangement a lot of bloodshed can be avoided."

The recent trips by Gen Kayani and Gen Pasha to Kabul were an "effort to make this happen," he said.

Afghan officials said Gen Kayani had offered to broker a deal with the Afghan Taliban leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, and had sent envoys to Kabul from another insurgent leader and long-time Pakistani ally, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, with the offer of a 15-point peace plan in March, the paper said.

As for the Haqqanis, whose fighters stretch across eastern Afghanistan all the way to Kabul, they are prepared to break with al-Qaeda, Pakistani intelligence and military officials said.

The Taliban, including the Haqqani group, are ready to "do a deal" over al-Qaeda, a senior Pakistani official close to the Pakistani Army said. The Haqqanis could tell al-Qaeda to move elsewhere because it had been given nine years of protection since 9/11, the official said.

But this official acknowledged that the Haqqanis and al-Qaeda were too "thick" for a separation to happen easily. They had given each other fighters, money, and other resources over a long period of time, he said.

Also, there appeared to be no idea where the Qaeda forces would go, and no answer to whether the Haqqanis would hand over Osama bin Laden and his second in command, Ayman  al-Zawahri, the official said.

The Haqqanis may be playing their own game with their hosts, the Pakistanis, Hussain said.

"Many believe that the Haqqanis' willingness to cut links with al-Qaeda is a tactical move which is aimed at thwarting the impending military action by the Pakistani Army in North Waziristan," he said.