Decoding South African President Zuma's decision to sack ministers

South Africa: In an about-turn of utterly astonishing proportions, last Monday South Africa’s increasingly isolated President Jacob Zuma partly rescinded his disastrous decisions of the previous week around the all-important Finance Ministry, by replacing the hugely unpopular Des van Rooyen — only three working days into the job — with a previous incumbent, Pravin Gordhan, who served as Finance Minister between 2009 and 2014. Van Rooyen — an unknown back-bencher whose only qualification seemed to be that he was a Zuma acolyte — was shunted off to Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs. The former respected Finance Minister, Nhlanha Nene, victim of the earlier sacking which had provoked the fury, was not re-appointed to any position however.

This forced about-turn, while positive for South Africa’s governance and its economy, is unprecedented in the history of our country. Hugely embarrassing for Zuma, and as bad, based on the manner of it, for the country’s image, it clearly represents a serious defeat for a once seemingly invincible President, who appears to have fatally misread the tidal wave of anger and frustration which rose up from across the political spectrum — including from within his own party as well as from the alliance — and which had coalesced into a movement of resistance which proved too irresistible for even the “Number One” to handle. 

The Nene decision, in the absence of any clear communication from the Presidency, seemed to have been taken simply because Nene had been too tough on stamping out corruption in dodgy tender deals around procurement, aviation and nuclear energy — deals which the President and those close to him were seemingly well-placed to illicitly benefit from. Never in South Africa’s democratic times has an issue galvanised quite so many from so many diverse backgrounds, and so quickly — and this in the light of previous serious (and embarrassing) challenges on Zuma’s authority such as the spy tapes, Nkandla, e-tolls and the Secrecy Bill. This time, though, together with the ruling party, the labour federation and the communist elements of the alliance, even members of the Cabinet and the ANC’s National Working Committee were on the verge of displaying mutinous behaviour, and this evidently proved to be the tipping point. 

While a return to the steady hand of Gordhan will, in all likelihood, be welcomed by international markets, who had shunned the country with alarming haste since last Wednesday, embarrassing questions will doubtless be raised as about the manner of how the whole debacle played out. Questions will also be asked about the signals Zuma’s volte-face sent to the international community about the way in which decisions with huge political and economic consequences are taken by the Administration. Clearly, questions will also be asked about who, exactly, is in charge of Africa’s most important and industrialised country. Doubtless, too, will the country’s other BRICS counterparts, particularly India, be asking searching questions about whether the country’s amateurish and ill-considered policy decisions are indirectly harming the image of BRICS in investors’ eyes.

While the situation is still fluid, we are witnessing a potentially epoch-making event, a development with ramifications at least as important as the Polokwane conference of 2007 (in which the labour, communist and leftist elements of the ANC Alliance usurped power away from former President Mbeki and promised a radical policy shift to a more populist approach), and quite possibly even more so. Only very powerful forces could have forced Zuma to do this — especially when it was an open secret that Zuma has previously moved Gordhan, a South African of Indian descent, because of his resistance to do the President’s dubious bidding. And these internal forces will no doubt be emboldened to act further. From nowhere, the President suddenly appears very vulnerable. While this was a long time coming, given his relentless assault on state institutions for his own enrichment and personal ends and his disregard for keeping cronyism in check, the speed of recent events has been breathless to watch.

In a press conference which immediately quelled disquiet and gave comfort to international markets, on Monday Gordhan announced that it was business as usual and that “we’re really serious when we say good governance is non-negotiable.” Going further in a frank address, he said that it was time that “individuals or groups of individuals stop playing with state entities, whether they are SOCs [state-owned companies] or other government components as if it’s a personal toy from which you can extract money when you feel like.” The prime responsibility of public institutions was to either contribute to the economy, contribute to providing a service, or to contribute to revenue for government. However, while Gordhan’s pronouncements gave confidence that fiscal discipline and orthodoxy would remain the bedrocks of South African practise, an elephant in the room remained in investors’ eyes- what to do about a leader whose increasing irrationality and growing reputation for incompetence threatens to ruin the fragile economy.  

After all, in the days leading up to the u-turn, R171bn (approximately 77,000 crore) was wiped off the stock exchange, mainly from financial sector share losses as emerging market investors shunned the rand. “Gordhan will likely achieve some success in calming the collective nerve,” said Gary van Staden an analyst at NKC African Economics, “but the longer-term consequences of presidential blunderings, thoughtlessness and knee-jerk decision-making will leave its own negative legacy.”

Fifty million citizens have looked to President Zuma for our future. For better or worse, this man has assumed the responsibility to cradle our collective aspirations, to make real our shared dreams. And as much as we are — belatedly, but wonderfully — the makers of our own destiny in a free South Africa, we have placed our trust in him. President Zuma has squandered that trust. And with this latest, breathless development, we might be hearing the chimes at midnight for his disastrous reign — and if that were to be the case, it would prove to be none too soon. 

The author is a South African writer based in Johannesburg. He is a trustee of the Helen Suzman Foundation, dedicated to strengthening South Africa’s constitutional democracy