Cementing ties in South Africa

The array of issues before the 10th BRICS Summit now underway – from July 25 to 27 – in Johannesburg range from multilateralism and global governance to infrastructure and inclusive growth. Global hotspot issues, international peace and security and trade issues are also high on the list of priorities for discussion. Besides, every BRICS Summit has to deal with issues that explode on the agenda. For now, these are the dangers of an escalating US-China trade war, the elections in Pakistan and its ramifications for the region, especially Afghanistan. 

The risk of a full-blown US-China trade war may be the dominant issue at the summit because current US trade policy, for all its disruptive fallout, also opens up avenues for BRICS nations. Thus BRICS, while slamming President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies, may strive for policy coordination to take advantage of the situation. As the biggest beneficiary of globalisation and multilateralism, China would attempt to rally others in BRICS to a common position against the challenges; and, also pitch for new trade alliances in a bid to coordinate macro-economic policies to stay in step with the changing global conditions.

Such a move is expected after BRICS finance ministers, at a meeting earlier this year, vowed to ‘fight against trade protectionism together’, and Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun had urged BRICS to ‘unequivocally oppose unilateralism and protectionism in any form.’

A distinctive feature at this summit would be a retreat for the leaders to take stock of BRICS’ progress in 10 years and reflect on the road ahead. Since every BRICS Summit has a plethora of issues and not all issues have equal resonance among all the members, each leader’s stocktaking would be through his own prism.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BRICS journey, which began with B (Brazil) in July 2014, has come full circle to S (South Africa) in 2018. The Sixth Summit, which he attended, had attracted more attention than any other in the gathering’s history till then. It was Modi’s first multilateral engagement. The summit’s biggest achievement was the BRICS bank – New Development Bank, as it is called. The second big achievement was the creation of the $100-billion Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) to provide a buffer for BRICS nations to tide over any balance of payment crisis and financial emergencies. These were firm and feasible steps towards a new global architecture of financial institutions, and they reflected a resolve to make the most of the power shift to Asia.

Beyond the economic, on the issues of peacekeeping and security, the support of BRICS in the fight against terrorism is a major concern for India. And, when it comes to terrorism, India views Pakistan as part of the problem. This, in turn, has a huge bearing on India’s relations with China, with implications for the peace-building process in Afghanistan, which is bordered by three BRICS nations. The importance of Afghanistan to India, China, Pakistan and Russia cannot be overstated, and regional security – which involves rooting out the forces of terrorism – depends on these four nations working together in close cooperation. That, however, is easier said than done.

At the Eighth BRICS Summit in Goa, in 2016, India pushed and prevailed in getting a resolution on terror that described Pakistan as the ‘mother ship’ of terrorism. In Goa, a Joint Working Group on Counter Terrorism was set up, much to India’s satisfaction. At the Ninth Summit in Xiamen, in 2017, India met with further success when BRICS, for the first time, named Pakistan-based terrorist groups Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in its joint declaration asking all states to prevent terror activities from their soil and curb terror financing. That summit also called for an end to violence in Afghanistan.

In Johannesburg, Modi is expected to raise the issue of cross-border terrorism and push again for BRICS to define terrorism. Indian officials, including National Security Advisor Ajit Doval who travelled to Durban for a pre-summit security meet, have pointed out that not enough is being done to check cross-border and state-sponsored terrorism. Whatever position BRICS may take, neither China nor Russia may lean in favour of India against Pakistan. China is Pakistan’s all-weather friend, and that is not going to change any time in the near future.

The 10th Summit with its theme of ‘BRICS in Africa’ has also scheduled an ‘Outreach with Leaders from Africa’. Despite Modi’s three-nation tour of Africa, beginning with Rwanda from July 23 and ending in South Africa, in recent years, India has not fared well in its relations with Africa. The periodic outbreaks of racist violence and mob attacks on Africans in New Delhi and its outskirts have, in 2017 and earlier, witnessed a war of words between African diplomats and the Ministry of External Affairs on racism and xenophobia.

Last year, African envoys in New Delhi expressed anger and disappointment at the government’s inability to protect their citizens. In a statement, the envoys ‘concluded that no known, sufficient, and visible deterring measures were taken by the Government of India’. These strong words — the strongest ever — from the association of African ambassadors representing 54 missions in Delhi, were provoked by the attacks against Nigerians after a local youth died allegedly of drug overdose. In 2015, there was outrage over the murder of a Congolese national MT Olivia in Delhi. At that time, African ambassadors did not mince their words about the ‘racism and Afro-phobia’ prevalent in India. Given this recent history, the ‘Outreach with African Leaders’ offers Modi an opportunity for political and diplomatic makeover on the BRICS platform.

In sum, the perceived challenges at the 10th BRICS Summit are opportunities to be seized.

The author is an independent political and foreign affairs commentator based in New Delhi. Views are personal.