Drawing battlelines for 2019: Upcoming Lok Sabha election will define future of Indian politics

Though the 2019 Lok Sabha election is more than two years away, every political calculation now revolves around it.

Make no mistake: 2019 represents an existential moment for several parties. If Prime Minister Narendra Modi leads the BJP to victory in 2019, it could spell the end of the dynastic Congress. Rahul Gandhi will be 54 in 2024. He would by then have spent 20 unsuccessful years in politics. Sonia Gandhi will be 77 and no longer a key factor in Indian politics. Priyanka Gandhi, 53, would remain the Congress’ wild card. But by 2024 playing it may be too little, too late.

Other parties in the Opposition recognise the danger of a second successive victory for Modi. It explains the near-hysteria the Prime Minister’s demonetization scheme has caused. Only Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik among Opposition leaders have grasped the full political ramifications of Modi’s war on black money. They know that the economic benefits — and these could be considerable — are dwarfed by the political implications.

In a country where poverty in varying degrees afflicts nearly half-a-billion people, the emotional appeal of punishing black money hoarders and tax-evading millionaires has irresistible moral appeal.  

Nitish Kumar, for example, has used morality in governance to burnish his political career. He has legislated against benami properties in Bihar and banned liquor. The JD(U) pointedly broke ranks with the rest of the Opposition over demonetization. Nitish is even talking to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley about a joint initiative to forge a digital-pay economy.

None of this suggests that Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is about to return to the NDA fold. As if to squelch growing murmurs of Nitish’s bromance with Modi, the Bihar chief minister declared: “The Central government’s actions are creating fear among minorities. The Centre is deliberately weakening federal power of the states. Some people talk about ghar wapsi and cow protection and are spreading hatred. But we are working to achieve our goals and will continue to do it in Bihar.”

Despite the rhetoric, Nitish has two problems. First, the erratic behaviour of his coalition partner Lalu Prasad Yadav and his family. The return of jungle Raj in Bihar has damaged Nitish’s reputation for good governance built methodically over two decades. Second, Nitish has sensed the national mood on demonetization. Aligning with those who oppose action against black money carries a huge political risk.

Unlike Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati and Arvind Kejriwal who react emotionally to events, Nitish has a cold, clinical approach to power. But, he too knows that a victory for Modi in 2019 will end any realistic chance he has of being Prime Minister in a future national mahagathbandhan.

Modi, of course, has problems of his own in the run-up to 2019. He has to make demonetization work on the ground. Moral victories can vanish if the poor continue to suffer due to a continued shortage of cash.

Modi also has to cross the hurdle of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections in 2017. Many realignments among the Opposition will take place after UP. The importance Modi attaches to the state is highlighted by the number of rallies he is holding there months in advance of the poll.

Modi also has to recalibrate ties with his allies. The Shiv Sena is a prickly customer, though somewhat sobered by the BJP’s recent victories in local elections in Maharashtra. The forthcoming BMC poll will decide how the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance holds up in 2019. Meanwhile, other NDA allies like SAD in Punjab, LJP in Bihar and TDP in Andhra Pradesh have weakened electorally since their wins in 2014. They will need to be whipped into shape.

Modi and his opponents both know that the results of the 2019 Lok Sabha election will define the contours of Indian politics for a generation.

The writer is author of The New Clash of Civilizations: How The Contest Between America, China, India and Islam Will Shape Our Century.