Kerala floods, death of three veteran political leaders indicate upsets in settled political equations

This August has turned out to be the cruellest month of the year so far. It saw the demise of three political titans — Dravida leader, thinker, scholar and writer Muthuvel Karunanidhi; followed by Marxist parliamentarian Somnath Chatterjee; and, former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who was the first to successfully helm a coalition government that completed its term at the Centre — and Kerala battling the worst-ever floods, which has so far killed hundreds and uprooted lakhs of people and left behind a terrible trail of destruction. At the global level, in the death of former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, the world lost a statesman who was passionate in his pursuit of both peace as well as equity and justice.

In India, the three departed patriarchs were in their autumn. Much as their loss may be felt acutely, their death did not come as a shock or surprise. Long before they drew their last breath, there were enough indications of the end being near.

Kerala, however, is still reeling under the shock and trauma of the fury unleashed by the unprecedented floods. The rains have abated. But what the sun shines on is a crushing scene of devastation, where the huge loss of lives and livelihoods is compounded by the land as well as human habitations being laid waste on a mind-boggling scale. The road to recovery, relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction will be long and hard, and at great cost. In the process of life returning to normal, there is bound to be new problems such as the outbreak of disease, the mountains of garbage left behind by receding waters and the pain and effort of coming to terms with loss.

This coming to terms with loss is common to both: the politically bereaved; and, those who lost their loved ones as well as the threads of their life in the deluge.

The loss brought people together in different ways. This was heartening to witness at a time when divisive forces and hate campaigns are in full flow to keep apart people and stir unrest. The floods, as much as the death of three politicians, provided the backdrop for this coming together. In Kerala, the floods saw lakhs of homeless survivors — in spite of acute deprivation and misery — eating, sleeping and living together; and caring, sharing and helping each other regardless of their religion, caste, language, class or political loyalty. All differences, at least among the common people, were swept away by the flood waters.

The deaths of Vajpayee, Karunanidhi and Chatterjee saw politicians and parties across the spectrum united in their tributes and in paying homage. There was hardly any divergence among the political class in their perception of the contribution of these political leaders, their legacy and the values they represented. No doubt, these were with an eye on the consequences of their death, which would bring to the fore new sites of political contest and re-alignments, with a bearing on assembly elections and the General Election in 2019.

The third common factor is that the three deaths and the disaster that struck Kerala are bound to alter political equations and give rise to new political and ideological questions, particularly in Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Bengal is the next big battleground, which would see a bitterly fought contest between the BJP and Trinamool Congress (TMC). This is already underway, including a tussle between the Centre and the state on a variety of issues. In the present situation, regardless of whether the TMC returns to office in Kolkata, the BJP appears poised to make inroads — both in the assembly and Lok Sabha elections — and including at the expense of the Congress party and the CPI(M).

The CPI(M)’s ideology and politics do not appear to be reinforcing each other. The party’s position on Chatterjee, including his crude expulsion from the CPI(M), underscored this contradiction in the starkest terms. As savvy players in parliamentary politics, having accepted Chatterjee’s elevation to the office of Speaker, the CPI(M) leadership ought to have accorded primacy to Parliament over the party and party politics. Once Chatterjee had risen to the constitutional office, he was above party and partisan politics. 

To expect him to resign as Speaker because of the CPI(M) withdrawing support to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s UPA was unacceptable. It betrayed impatience with pluralism and, at that time, indifference to the sense and sentiments of the House.

Chatterjee’s death should serve as a reminder for the CPI(M) to reconcile its politics and ideology, and make a clean break with Stalinist tendencies.

Vajpayee’s legacy, doubtless, would be made the most of by the BJP. For all practical purposes, the campaign for 2019 has been already launched at an opportune juncture.

In the aftermath of Karunanidhi, the Dravida legacy is up for grabs. His successor MK Stalin has to hold together the party and the cadres from the onslaught of the BJP, the Congress, the other Tamil parties, and the factions led by his siblings and the Maran brothers. More than the prospects of the DMK, the future of Dravida politics is at stake. Tamil Nadu is yearning for change. Whether the change is a continuation of Dravida politics or a departure from the political culture of the last 50 years, it would — like the electoral outcome in Bengal and Kerala — have immense bearing on the direction of politics and federalism after 2019.

The author is Consulting Editor-Opinion Page, DNA.