Lanka’s crisis may get worse

The landslide victory pulled off by former Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa in last month’s election to local bodies has rudely shaken the island republic’s ruling coalition and unsettled the political situation.  More importantly, the fault lines which were cited by the “international community” and India to carry out the regime change operation that brought President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe to office in 2015 are once again to the fore.

Besides turning the spotlight on a host of political, economic and governance problems, Rajapaksa’s resurgence has exacerbated the rift between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe. Above all, the discord has resulted in the collapse of the bipartisan consensus for pursuing Tamil-Sinhala reconciliation. At this juncture, any outbreak of ethnic violence – even if it be between Buddhists and Muslims   could revive old fault lines and spiral out of control. 
Therefore, it is not surprising that to pre-empt the Buddhist-Muslim clashes from spreading further in Kandy District, President Sirisena has acted swiftly by imposing a nationwide emergency for 10 days. 

Amid the gathering political uncertainty, communal riots (between any two ethnic groups) could further vitiate the atmosphere and intensify the power struggle within the ruling coalition, thereby putting paid to any hope of reviving the agenda for Tamil-Sinhala reconciliation. Long before Rajapaksa’s victory in the local elections, the national unity coalition has been battling cracks created by the differences between Wickremesinghe and Sirisena. 

In fact, the disarray within the ruling alliance made it easier for Rajapaksa’s newly-formed Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) or People’s Party to inflict a stunning defeat on the SLFP and the UNP.

Rajapaksa’s SLPP bagged 44.65 per cent of the votes to capture 231 out of the 340 local bodies (24 municipal, 41 urban and 274 divisional councils) to which elections were held. The UNP, which polled 32.63 per cent of the votes, came a poor second with 37 councils while Sirisena’s SLFP, with less than 14 per cent of the votes, managed only nine councils.

The Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK), which is the main party of the Tamil National Alliance, won 40 seats in the Tamil-dominated North. The bulk of Rajapaksa’s vote came from Sinhalas in the south, reinforcing the claim that he has held on to the votes (47.6 per cent) he polled in the last presidential election three years ago.

While Rajapaksa does not appear to have suffered any erosion of support, Sirisena and Wickremesinghe have squandered the mandate they won in the presidential and parliamentary elections of 2015. The fact of the two leaders falling out has stalled the unity government from delivering on its promises to: end corruption, nepotism and cronyism; revive the economy; ensure good governance with accountability and transparency; and, create a harmonious post-conflict order based on reconciliation that does justice to Tamil demands. The conspicuous failure of the ruling alliance to make progress on any of these tracks has turned the electoral tide in favour of Rajapaksa, who was voted out mainly for his dictatorial tendencies, cronyism, nepotism, corruption and locking Sri Lanka in China’s “debt trap”.

So much so, that now it is ‘Advantage Rajapaksa’, which not only endangers the political fortunes of Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP) but also India’s geopolitical interests. At a time of fraught goings-on in the region – such as an authoritarian regime in the Maldives imposing an emergency, riding roughshod over its parliament and judiciary, and cocking a snook at New Delhi – with China looming large in India’s zone of influence, events in Sri Lanka are further cause for concern.

In the three years after the exit of President Rajapaksa, Chinese influence and economic clout has not diminished in Sri Lanka. To the contrary, China’s presence is increasing in many areas. Sri Lanka’s handing over of the Hambantota port to the Chinese on long lease is one of many projects that may have strategic and security implications for the region.

The coalition of the SLFP and the UNP is in serious trouble with leaders of each party raring to jettison the other and form a government of its own. Sirisena had gone to the extent of asking Wickremesinghe to quit as prime minister. The inevitable crisis that would have resulted from matters coming to a head has been averted for the time being with Sirisena shuffling the cabinet and Wickremesinghe being appointed minister of law and order.

However, relations between the two are still prickly and the simmering trouble in the alliance can erupt again any time. The acrimonious campaign carried out by both the parties against each other for the local bodies’ election has created a lot of rancor and bitterness. It will take a while for that to be put behind and the rapprochement to come about without any external intervention.

The domestic situation in Sri Lanka — where squabbles within the ruling coalition may spell instability — is of utmost concern to New Delhi because of the bearing it has on Indian security and strategic concerns in the region. Sirisena and Wickremesinghe ought to realise that while they can together last in government until the next elections, separately both of them would fall and pave the way for Rajapaksa’s early return.

In the circumstances, the two have to hammer out a formula to iron out their differences and make the coalition a functional success in the time left before the provincial elections scheduled later this year. While they can count on the the Tamil vote, the SLFP and UNP have to recover lost ground among Sinhala voters especially in the rural south. Reviving the Tamil-Sinhala reconciliation process should help the ruling coalition win back some of the lost voter confidence. In addition, to overcome their record of economic failure, the government needs to implement policies and programmes for demonstrable impact, especially when it comes to investments, projects and jobs. These are the minimum that the unity coalition requires to do for its survival in office while it still enjoys the support and goodwill of India and the international community.

The author is an independent political and foreign affairs commentator