Nitish Kumar's age-old penchant for devising ways to stay on in power is well known

When Nitish Kumar parted ways with Lalu Prasad Yadav in April 1994,  formed his breakaway outfit and wanted a ‘national face’, he turned to the one-time firebrand leader, George Fernandes. The rebels called themselves Janata Dal (George) for months before Samata Party was formed. Nitish Kumar inherited the once iconic leader’s heritage alongside his ideological flexibility. In the annals of Indian history, Fernandes will forever be remembered for deserting Morarji Desai within 50 hours of a stout defence in Parliament during the no-confidence motion against the Janata Party government. The switch over to the Charan Singh camp was first labelled as evidence that Fernandes squandered away all self-respect but was later accepted as a routine manoeuvre of most politicians. Consequently, the latest shift in the Bihar Chief Minister’s stance — from mooting another term for President Pranab Mukherjee barely a month ago to supporting Ram Nath Kovind’s candidature —  comes as no surprise. Instead, the debate is whether the Bihar CM’s decision is just a one-time dissonance with his two coalition partners, or if his Presidential choice presages an eventual change of camps in the run-up to 2019.

Barely three months ago when several opposition leaders, Nitish Kumar included, weighed possibilities of forming a Bihar Mahagathbandhan-style alliance, he was bandied as one of the potential challengers to Narendra Modi. However, after his latest turnaround, while there may not be any clarity over the leader’s identity, there is surety that it is unlikely to be Nitish Kumar. Following Omar Abdullah’s declaration immediately after the astounding verdict from Uttar Pradesh that the Opposition must forget 2019 and prepare for 2024, the Bihar CM’s posture is sweet music to PM Modi’s ears. However, beyond obvious conclusions, there are layers of political portents that need deciphering.

It is not just political pedigree that lends suppleness to Nitish Kumar’s ideological spine. He has long practised the ends-justify-the-means theory; in his case, the ‘ends’ means political power. Biographer and journalist Sankarshan Thakur wrote about a coffee house discussion with Nitish in Patna. He banged the table providing a flash of his ambition: “Satta prapt karoonga, by hook or crook, aur achchha kaam karoonga” (will acquire power by hook or crook, and thereafter do good work). Whether he fulfilled the latter part of his statement makes for subjective assessment, but there is no denying that Nitish stuck to the principle of securing power by any means.

Consider this: In 2013 he broke his party’s 17-year-old alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party to oppose Modi’s anointment as the prime ministerial candidate. Previously, he disallowed Modi from campaigning in Bihar during elections in 2009 and 2010. Yet in 2002, in the aftermath of the Gujarat riots, when several leaders took a stand, Nitish not just remained a minister in Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government, but also became the Chief Minister with BJP’s backing. In the run up to the 2012 Presidential elections, Nitish sensed that Modi’s rise was inevitable, and to prepare for an eventual parting of ways with his coalition partner, he broke ranks with the NDA and backed Pranab Mukherjee. Given this history, it raises the spectre that his decision to back Kovind provides an early indication that the present political deck may witness shuffling.

Nitish’s uneasy partnership with Lalu Yadav was discernible even after they chose to look past their differences following the 2014 rout. Discomfort sharpened after the sweeping verdict of November 2015. If not for the legal injunction against him, Yadav would have been the CM and Nitish the junior partner. In terms of social base too, the JD(U) is smaller. To counter this, despite past animosities with Modi, Nitish kept his door for the BJP ajar by periodically supporting government policies, significantly on surgical strikes and demonetisation. Initially, it seemed his favourable posture towards the Centre was aimed at leveraging opposition parties into accepting his leadership. It now appears Nitish has scaled down his national ambitions and is focussed on  first securing his position in the state. Because to remain a CM, he requires the support of either the Rashtriya Janata Dal or the BJP. He is keeping the RJD on tenterhooks and the BJP expectant.

The UP verdict demonstrated that the BJP’s position in politics remains unchallenged in the Hindi heartland. Though open to revisiting ties with JD(U), the BJP is unlikely to revive the coalition on pre-2013 terms.

Unless willing to accept a minor role, Nitish cannot be certain of an honourable future with the BJP. He will hope that investigations against Yadav’s family members will force Lalu to tone down his overbearing attitude. Nitish Kumar has taken a gamble, but there is no certainty if the dice will roll in his favour yet again.

The writer is a Delhi-based journalist and author