PM Modi makes India proud

On June 1, Narendra Modi will become the first Indian Prime Minister to deliver the keynote address at the annual Shangri La Dialogue, inarguably Asia’s premier defence and strategic affairs conference. The Shangri La Dialogue (held at the Shangri La Hotel, hence the name), launched in 2002 by the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) brings together Prime Ministers, Defence Ministers, strategic thinkers and senior military functionaries from key countries not just in Asia but from the wider Indo-Pacific for candid exchange of views on defence and strategic matters.

Apart from Prime Minister Modi, this year’s conference will see important speeches by US Secretary of Defence James Mattis and defence ministers of France, Australia, Japan, Indonesia, Myanmar, South Korea, Vietnam, Germany, Canada, New Zealand, Qatar, UK and host Singapore. The tone of the conference is often set by the keynote speaker. As Defence and Intelligence Chiefs of 30 nations from the wider region listen to him, Prime Minister Modi is expected to outline India’s vision for Asia and beyond and New Delhi’s relations with leading powers US and China as well as ASEAN nations, Japan and Australia.

India’s Indo-Pacific strategy is determined by its own vision about the wider geographical arch encompassing the Indian Ocean from the shores of East Africa to the edge of Western Pacific and its outreach to smaller countries in the region in the context of China’s increasing forays into the region.

New Delhi under Modi has broken new ground in openly and boldly pursuing policies dictated solely by India’s own national interest. For instance, India signing the LEMAO (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) with the United States in August 2016, after years of hesitation, was a breakthrough moment in Indo-US military ties. On the discussion table for at least fifteen years, the previous governments were unwilling to take the plunge for fear of being branded ‘pro-US’, but Prime Minister Modi and his national security overcome the hesitation and signalled an unequivocal shift towards a greater defence, especially maritime, cooperation with the United States and its allies. Part of the reason to go ahead and clinch the LEMOA was New Delhi’s way of signalling to Beijing that India is willing to go further than it had gone in the past, in maintaining a balance of power in Asia and disallowing China a free run in the geo-politics of the continent. In that context a tailor-made agreement for India, the diluted LSA, now called the LEMOA, was just the right message to China in the ongoing tussle for influence in Asia.

Modi will be at the Shangri La Dialogue after concluding a crucial visit to Indonesia, an important player in the Indian Ocean and one of India’s closest maritime neighbour. Under Modi, India has refocused its outreach to the ASEAN nations under the ‘Act East Policy’. India has also enhanced its defence ties with Singapore and Vietnam. With Singapore, it now has a bilateral defence ministers’ dialogue while New Delhi has extended a $500 million line of credit to Vietnam to source defence equipment. It has also stepped up training to the Vietnam Navy and Vietnam air force. Japan, one of India’s key allies is now a permanent participant in the Naval exercises in Malabar, which for years was a bilateral one between India and the US. With Australia, India has launched a bilateral naval exercise and it is likely that in the future the Royal Australian Navy may join the Exercise Malabar held every alternate year in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

As one of the fastest growing large economies in the world, India has emerged as a key player and a country to do business with despite occasional hiccups brought about by rising oil prices and demonetisation of currency.

The Prime Minister’s speech will also be keenly followed by observers to understand how India intends to influence the wider Indo-Pacific. The geographical region is too vast for India to be an effective player in the entire expanse. As Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow for South Asia at the IISS, writes in a commentary: “There appears to be no clear differentiation between India’s policies and priorities towards the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific parts of the ‘Indo-Pacific’. India cannot expect to be a ‘first responder’ or ‘net security provider plus’ in the latter region. Only in the Indian Ocean will India have geographical advantages vis-à-vis the Chinese navy.”

A closer cooperation between India and the US — which has just renamed its Hawaii-based Pacific Command to Indo-Pacific Command — is now a given but most other countries in the region will hedge their bets in the face of a more assertive China and will not like to take sides. Even India, despite its bonhomie with the US, has charted its own course to improve bilateral ties with China. The recent informal summit between Modi and President Xi at Wuhan is seen as a beginning of new phase in relations between the two Asian neighbours. It would therefore be interesting to watch if the Indian Prime Minister mentions the on-going tussle in the South China Sea directly in his address to the Shangri La Dialogue. 

India has consistently advocated freedom of navigation and adherence to rules-based order in various international forums. Modi will surely reiterate the principle but most observers expect him to refrain from directly pointing an accusing finger at China for its aggressive posture in South China Sea. However, given his record of doing the unexpected, don’t bet on the Indian PM to stick to the script!

The writer — a National Security Analyst and founder of specialised defence website BharatShakti.in — is attending Shangri La Dialogue at the invitation of the organisers, IISS. Views are personal.