Several months before the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance coalesced in Uttar Pradesh, chief minister Akhilesh Yadav had made an interesting observation. Speaking at the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit in Delhi in December 2015, Akhilesh said he wanted to see his father Mulayam Singh Yadav as the Prime Minister of an anti-BJP front and Rahul Gandhi as deputy PM. The Yadav junior was replying to questions from the audience on the possibility of an SP-Congress tie-up. Rahul Gandhi, who was also present, refused to comment while the AICC officially rejected the offer saying that no alliance was being planned with the SP.

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Much water has flowed under the bridge since. Whether orchestrated or real, the family feud in Mulayam’s family marginalised the father even as it catapulted the son to the driver’s seat, bolstering his national profile. It is not Mulayam but the 43-year-old Akhilesh, with his emergence as a modern, progressive and pro-development leader endearing himself to the youth and India Inc, who will be in the reckoning for prime ministerial sweepstakes in 2019 or 2024. That, of course, is with a caveat - provided his party wins a substantial number of Lok Sabha seats from UP sending 80 MPs to the lower House.

In this context, some Congress veterans feel that Rahul made a tactical error in forging an alliance with the beleaguered SP in UP and thereby giving a lifeline to Akhilesh who was struggling to ward off anti-incumbency, bad law and order, a divided Muslim opinion and turf war in the family.  They were of the view that Rahul should have invested more time and resources in Punjab, which is more critical for him and where the Aam Admi Party had emerged a formidable force. An AAP victory in the state could make it a national alternative to the Congress with Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal also crowding the queue for the PM post. The Rahul camp, on the other hand, felt that Capt. Amarinder Singh and the cricketer-turned politician Navjot Siddhu duo was capable of wresting power from the Akalis.

In a worst-case scenario, Rahul may have to face two new national challengers - Kejriwal and Akhilesh. Some Congress veterans think that the party’s first priority should have been to ensure the defeat of the BJP in UP, its principal foe, and that the BSP would have been the best bet for it with tactical or covert support from the Congress. The SP-Congress alliance has confused the Muslim voters to the advantage of the BJP. The results on Saturday will tell whether the in-house critics were right or wrong. If the Congress performance in UP is below par and the SP manages the numbers for Akhilesh to become CM, he will be in a better position to bag a good number of Lok Sabha seats from the state in 2019. Way back in 2004, the SP had secured 38 LS seats. The BJP peaked in 2014 bagging 71 seats. It will be impossible to repeat this feat in 2019, even with a BJP government in Lucknow as Prime Minister Narendra Modi has since lost his 2014 halo of a “vikas purush”. In contrast, Akhilesh has been able to reinvent himself in the last few months. The other positive fallout of the family feud is that his shy wife and Lok Sabha MP, Dimple Yadav, a political greenhorn, has suddenly metamorphosed into a popular, charismatic leader. It is possible that in a future scenario Akhilesh can leave Lucknow to her while he tests national waters.

The AAP is planning electoral forays into Gujarat, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and possibly Madhya Pradesh; bi-polar states where the Congress is weak and vulnerable. Akhilesh and Kejriwal are long-term players and both could emerge as national challengers of Modi, as well as Rahul, in 2019 and beyond. A resurgent AAP or an ambitious SP may end up helping the BJP by further splitting the Left-of-Centre space. Even as the aam admi chase the chimera of “Achha Din”, the Opposition has failed to weave a powerful, alternative narrative. The results on Saturday will unveil the national mood for the political stakeholders to go in for course correction.

The author is a senior journalist and political commentator.