Nepali PM KP Oli's visit gives India a chance to wean neighbour away from China

When Nepalese Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli comes on April 6 to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the occasion – far from being an effusive celebration of a friendship based on age-old ties – is likely to be weighed under recent grievances.

Precisely for that reason, the three-day visit of Oli is an opportunity for India as well as Nepal. An opportunity to take stock of bilateral relations in a realistic framework, address issues of concern and arrive at a template for sustaining mutually beneficial relations in a climate free of suspicion, distrust and discord.

Since the Modi government is perceived to have toppled Oli in 2016 during his first stint as prime minister, New Delhi may have to go the extra mile with reassuring signals to make him comfortable and win his confidence. For his part, Oli must be prepared to move on by recognising that what New Delhi did for reasons of state cannot be held as a personal grudge against an individual or a government. At the same time, to remain in denial of that phase of mistrust and rancour, which marked relations between Oli’s regime and the Modi sarkar, cannot help to create conditions for moving towards a new beginning. And, a new beginning is the need of the hour.

New Delhi’s (aborted) attempt to dictate the terms of Nepal’s constitution followed by non-cooperation and the economic blockade that eventually led to the fall of Oli as prime minister is unlikely to be ever repeated again. None of that may happen again. Having burnt its fingers, New Delhi is unlikely to do anything overt as it did by sending the Foreign Secretary to stall the promulgation of the constitution. The economic blockade of 2015 was reminiscent in some ways of the closure of trade and transit points on the India-Nepal border by Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1989. The action, on both occasions, might have been intended to impress how India can squeeze an “uncooperative” Nepal. But, China waiting to win over Nepal as a “strategic asset” came to Oli’s rescue and signed a series of agreements, including for energy supplies, thereby reducing its dependence on India.

Thus, although Oli may have been ousted, Nepal found in China “a friend in need”, which has vastly reduced New Delhi’s leverage over Kathmandu. Oli avenged his ouster by leading the Left Alliance of his party and the Maoists to a landslide victory in the elections in November 2017, which he fought on an anti-India platform. At that stage, New Delhi was still betting on Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba whose Nepali Congress was way behind in the electoral sweepstakes. Even after the results favoured Oli at the helm of a new government, there were attempts to raise hurdles against his being sworn. Oli’s stated position of equidistance from India and China was a sore point for New Delhi, which wants to stop Nepal from moving into China’s arms.

When Oli’s becoming prime minister was a foregone conclusion, political India was quick to make amends with External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj congratulating him and later visiting Nepal. Since then everything has been correct and cordial between New Delhi and Kathmandu, in spite of developments pointing to Oli’s superior comfort level with Beijing; which is doing all it can to reinforce the perception that Nepal’s present dispensation is moving closer to China.

Last week, Nepal came in for praise from China “for pursuing an independent foreign policy”. China’s foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said in Beijing that “we commend the Nepal government’s commitment towards an independent foreign policy. We also support Nepal developing friendly and positive relations with its neighbours.” For good measure, he added: “China, Nepal and India are important neighbours to each other. We hope we can work together, have some sound interactions and achieve common development.”

This was two days after Indian official was quoted as saying that the days when India held South Asia to be its “sphere of influence” are long gone. “We can’t stop what the Chinese are doing, whether in the Maldives or in Nepal, but we can tell them about our sensitivities, our lines of legitimacy. If they cross it, the violation of this strategic trust will be upon Beijing,” according to the official.

This was in the context of India informing Beijing that it would not intervene in the crisis-ridden Maldives. Yet this statement of position is relevant for Nepal, too, as Oli’s has been forthright in his remarks against New Delhi amidst his overtures to Beijing. Equally relevant for Nepal is India asking China to not cross “lines of legitimacy” and respect India’s measure of “strategic trust”.

Nepal may draw comfort from the fact that India will not in any way hinder Kathmandu’s dealings with Beijing including its participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, yet Oli particularly must bear in mind the reference to “lines of legitimacy” and “strategic trust”.

Oli’s strength lies in political stability at home and, it goes without saying that, good relations with India have become a prerequisite for stable political conditions that can spur Nepal’s economic development. Oli’s position in Nepal is strong, but he is not all-powerful. The Maoists in the Left Alliance have made equal participation at all levels a precondition for the merger of the communist parties. New Delhi knows that it would not take much to upset the applecart in Nepal where, for all the anti-India rhetoric, there are no dearth of prime ministerial aspirants seeking India’s patronage.

The author, an independent political and foreign affairs commentator, is Co-Editor of the book ‘State of Nepal’.
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