South China Sea a thorn in Singapore-China relations

In recent times, the relationship between China and Singapore has witnessed many ups and downs. However, the visit of Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to China last September was seen as a major move to infuse a new momentum in bilateral ties, with Chinese President Xi Jinping describing the two countries as “close and special partners”.

While historical linkages between Singapore and China began much earlier and there have been high-level exchanges since 1970, it was only in 1990 that diplomatic ties between the two countries were established. Since then, the two sides have taken a number of steps to strengthen the bilateral engagement. In 2015, during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Singapore, the two sides agreed to establish ‘all-round cooperative partnership with the times’ to elevate the bilateral relationship to a higher level. Surely, the economic sphere has over these years emerged as the most important aspect of the relationship between China and Singapore, with the two sides having signed numerous agreements on investment promotion and protection, tourism and others. China is Singapore’s largest trading partner, while Singapore is China’s largest foreign investor. The two countries have already formed inseparable economic and trade relations. They recorded $66 billion in two-way trade in 2016, representing 13 per cent of Singapore’s global total. The 350-km project — which will cost an estimated $14 billion and is due to be operational by the end of 2026 — will be the first cross-country high-speed railway in Asia, connecting Singapore to Kuala Lumpur in 90 minutes. Chinese businessmen have also invested in real estate and infrastructure construction in Singapore, with the two sides recently having agreed to upgrade their free-trade agreement.

However, the upward trajectory in the relationship was hit in April 2016 when two senior officials of the Singapore government accused China of interfering in ASEAN’s internal affairs and attempting to divide the regional grouping after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China had reached a four-point consensus with Brunei, Cambodia and Laos on the South China Sea issue. Consequently, China sought clarification from Singapore on the accusation levelled by the diplomats. Singapore’s decision to allow US Littoral Combat Ships and US P-8a Poseidon maritime surveillance also angered Beijing. The tension between the two countries continued to rise, with Hong Kong’s Customs and Exercise Department seizing nine Terrex Infantry Carrier Vehicles of the Singapore Armed Forces.

In the meantime, some signs of rapprochement between the two sides did appear in February 2017 when Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean visited China to attend the 13th Joint Council for Bilateral Cooperation, which is the most important bilateral meeting between China and Singapore. During his meeting with Chinese leaders, Teo also emphasised on moving past the incidents and strengthening economic ties.

This effort of pacifying China, however, did not produce any positive result. This can be gauged from the fact that when Chinese President launched his ambitious initiative ‘One Belt One Road,’ Singapore was not invited to attend the programme, despite the fact that during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit in 2015, Singapore had already expressed its desire to join the initiative.

Surely, one of the reasons for China to harden its position against Singapore is the City-State’s stand on the South China issue. Beijing is concerned about the fact that Singapore is trying to amplify the South China issue by supporting the ruling of the International Court of Justice, dismissing China’s claim in the South China Sea region. On the other hand, Singapore has its own interest to see that the South China Sea region remain free from China’s dominance, as any instability in the region would impact its economy. And, it is this reason that Singapore advocates for a rules-based order. China is also upset with the Singapore government’s positive assessment about the US’ role in maintaining security in the region. In fact, on many occasions the Singapore leadership has supported the US’ rebalancing policy in Asia and there has been substantial military engagement between the two sides. In turn, Beijing sees deepening security ties between Singapore and the US as a counter-balance attempt against China. Beijing has now started raising its eyebrows over Singapore’s continued military, political and other direct contacts with Taiwan, despite the fact that Singapore does recognise Taiwan as a part of China.

Amid increasing tension between the two countries, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong visited China, opening the door for political talks to revert the direction of the relationship. Undoubtedly, Singapore’s balancing act underscores its need to improve ties with China, given its economic interests with China and Beijing’s increasing influence in other ASEAN countries, among other issues. With Singapore set to host the ASEAN Summit in 2018 as ASEAN chair, it is hoped that China and Singapore will further consolidate the positive development made over the last one year.

The author is a Visiting Fellow at National Chengchi University, Taipei. Views are personal.