T20, ODI or a Test match?

West Indies cricket captain Chris Gayle recently suggested that Test cricket as we know it may soon wither away and he for one would not be saddened if that did happen. His remarks immediately triggered off a storm especially among the West Indian greats like Gary Sobers and Vivian Richards who brought glory to their teams and to the game itself. Though Gayle has softened his stand, it is clear that he — and many others like him — see a greater future for themselves in the Twenty 20 format which is short, snappy and much more rewarding financially than the five day Test match.

Something similar is happening in Indian politics. The day and age of the single largest party that wins elections across the land and rules for five years is now past. We are now firmly in the era of coalitions, when the so-called national parties barely reach the half of the halfway mark in Parliament and then have to rely on a motley band of smaller outfits to make up the numbers. Two such coalitions — the UPA and the NDA — did last the full five year term, but many other similar formations came and went within months.

Coalitions are not a new phenomenon in India. The Janata Party of 1977 was a kind of coalition of disparate parties united only in their antipathy and opposition to Indira Gandhi’s Congress. Many political outfits, ranging from the right-wing Jan Sangh to the socialist groupings to Congress breakaways merged their parties into the Janata Party, but it remained an uneasy coexistence for all. Soon enough the Janata government fell under the weight of its own contradictions and the ambitious Charan Singh, encouraged by the tacit promise of Congress support formed the government with just 64 MPs. Singh will go down in history as the only prime minister who never faced the Lok Sabha.

Since then, every decade or so we have seen minority coalitions — the so-called anti-Congress, anti-BJP fronts — come to power, struggle to keep up the pretence and collapse only to be replaced by something even more inherently unstable. In 1989, VP Singh managed just 11 months as prime minister; his successor Chandra Sekhar lasted only eight months. Though PV Narasimha Rao ran a minority government, he completed the whole term till 1996, but the next two, HD Deve Gowda and IK Gujral between them could not even finish two years.

All these fronts had one thing in common — the two larger parties stayed out of the government and gave only outside support. The NDA, headed by the BJP and the UPA with the Congress at the core were also coalitions but these lasted the course. Clearly therefore, the Third Front fantasy is untenable. Yet during the last few months we have seen persistent efforts to create that mythical front and make it work. Now, with hours to go before the final results will be available, there are still those who hold on to the dream of just such a non-Congress, non-BJP coalition and still many leaders who want to become prime minister of just such a precarious coalition.

But the Third Front is a dying idea, if not already dead and it is the members of the front itself who are responsible for its demise. Each and every component who, till the other day, was breathing fire and declaring his (and her) full faith in the front is talking — and not clandestinely either — to one or both the national parties.

They have a list of demands for power and pelf; the big party that fulfils those demands will get the support. Take the much-heralded Nitish Kumar, for example. He runs his government in Bihar with the help of the BJP and for all his bluster about Narendra Modi was in full solidarity with him in Ludhiana last week. Could Nitish go with the Congress?

Improbable at the moment, but not impossible. Would he join the Third Front if thatdoes take off? Perhaps. He just wants special status for Bihar and Rs1000 crore for the state. The same applies to Naveen Patnaik and for that matter to Sharad Pawar and Jayalalithaa, all of whom are supposed to be engaged to someone else but are flirting with the bigger suitors. As for Mayawati, she has but one demand — make me prime minister. Political promiscuity of this magnitude has rarely been seen in India before.

All of them have realised that they need the bigger parties if they want to be part of a five year term. In short, the Test match. But such is their eagerness, that they might consider the shorter versions too. At this stage all options are open. The shorter governments have a built in recipe for instability, but power is a great motivator. The numbers will finally decide and for a stable government, one or the other big party has to cross the 180 or at least the 180 seat mark and become the core of the next government. Otherwise we will be doomed to yet another T20 or at best a one year international, which may be lucrative but is ultimately not the real game.