Brexit, Trump, and anti-immigrant sentiments altering the ‘most favoured destinations’ for students

The rise of nationalism coupled with the anti-immigrant sentiment in the United Kingdom and the United States is set to unleash a drastic change in the international education landscape during the next few years. The xenophobia has spilled into Europe as well, as support for right-wing parties is increasingly growing in countries like France, Germany, and Italy, once considered to harbour comparatively liberal attitudes towards immigrants.

Over five million students are currently studying outside their native countries. With a one-fifth share, the US has been the undisputed leader of international education so far. The US and the UK together account for over one-third of the globally mobile student population. Amid the rise in support for right-wing politics, both countries have started witnessing a fall in their international student share and absolute numbers, recent surveys indicate.    

Nearly 40 per cent of US universities are seeing a decline in applications from international students. Recruitment professionals report “a great deal of concern” from students and their families about tighter visa norms by the Trump administration and perceptions of a less-welcoming climate in the country. There is an estimated 26 per cent decline in undergraduate applications and 15 per cent decline in graduate applications from India.

Applications from Chinese students dropped by 25 per cent and 32 per cent in undergraduate studies and graduate studies, respectively. China and India together account for 40 per cent of the total international admission in the US. 

The highest decline (39 per cent for undergraduates and 31 per cent for graduates) has been reported from West Asia, which is expected to drop further due to President Donald Trump’s executive order barring entry of nationals of six Muslim countries from West Asia and Africa. The United Kingdom has also seen a drastic drop in international applications since the conservative government stipulated stricter visa norms four years ago. With the country headed for Brexit, the possibility of further restrictions on visa and rise in education costs for immigrants cannot be ruled out. 

In a survey of professors by the University College Union, 40 per cent of UK academics — and 75 per cent of non-UK EU academics — said that they were “more likely to consider leaving Britain” after Brexit. The uncertain socio-economic and political future of the UK and the US has alarmed students. Parents also look for safer options. In this context, it is not surprising that overseas education consultants in India have reported increased inquiries for universities in other English-speaking and “safer” countries like Canada, New Zealand, and Australia this year. As if on cue, these countries have already come up with aggressive recruitment policies.  

South Korea, Japan, China, Malaysia, and Singapore are likely to be the other major beneficiaries of this changing trend. The Netherlands and Ireland are also evolving destinations, say experts. The faculty shift is also likely to be in the same direction. This would be the third major shift in the overseas education landscape since the beginning of the 21st century. The first transformation in student mobility was seen in the aftermath of the 9/11 attack which had forced the US to tighten visa rules. 

Australia and the UK cashed in on this opportunity and absorbed most of the growth in international students. In 2009, international students represented 21.5 per cent and 15.3 per cent of higher education enrolment in Australia and the UK, compared to 4 per cent in the US, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). However, the recession of 2008 brought a halt to their success story. Student mobility again shifted towards the US even as new educational hubs emerged in Asia and other parts of the world. According to OECD, one out of five international students is regionally mobile who seeks global education at a local cost. This mobility is largely driven by rapidly increasing wealth in fast-growing countries such as China, India, and the Middle East.

 UNESCO estimates that the number of international students is expected to touch 7 million by 2020. The preference for affordable quality education closer home is rising too. The emerging destinations offer education at cheaper costs compared to the US and UK. Some also have campuses of big universities of the UK and the US, where costs are nearly half those at the main campuses. This is what the aspiring middle class of developing Asian and African countries want.

The author is a special correspondent with DNA, based in Mumbai. She tweets @Ms_Aflatoon