Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping may have developed a personal rapport, but the differences are very much there. A day after the Prime Minister invited the Chinese President to come to India for a ‘Wuhan-style’ summit, China showed that improved ties with India was not going to stop it from pushing its interests. The fact that Beijing again pushed its BRI initiative, which includes a China-Pakistan economic corridor that passes through PoK, suggests that the ‘Dragon’ is not going to be sensitive to India’s concerns anytime soon. Beijing’s move will leave mandarins in New Delhi scratching their heads. Were Wuhan and the SCO meetings all for nothing? Will China continue to ramp up aggressive measures against India? Is India in danger of becoming isolated in the region? These are valid questions, but New Delhi should not hit the panic button just yet. Those familiar with China’s foreign policy will know that Beijing will continue to follow ‘intimidation’ tactics to keep New Delhi guessing. However, after Doklam, a new respect for India has emerged and China will push back from the brink.
Both countries know they cannot afford to antagonise the other. If China is trying to intimidate India, it is also doing so with Pakistan. The fact that both Modi and Xi met at Wuhan, and both countries agreed to undertake a joint development project in Afghanistan in April, has made Islamabad nervous. Fears are growing in Pakistan that China may no longer be its ‘all weather friend’. Given the fact that President Xi has actively responded to the ‘reset’ in relations with India, such fears may not be unfounded. Despite saying all this, India needs to accept that China will never truly be its ally. Xi’s willingness to confront powerful countries suggests that Beijing will continue with its bid to become a superpower. Is that something India should be worried about? No. The US and Europe share India’s concerns and President Emmanuel Macron’s high profile visit to India in March this year showed that France was willing to do all it could to check China. Also, the aggressive ‘Act East’ policy by the PM has shown China that India is not alone in the region. Beijing will have to be careful.
Finally, engaging with India is beneficial to China, in a way it wasn’t so before. The spurt in bilateral trade to a record $84.44 billion in 2017, with a 40 per cent increase in Indian exports to China, shows that engagement makes sound economic sense. Prime Minister Modi emphasised this fact by allowing the first Bank of China branch to open in Mumbai. While economics may not sort out pending issues, it can go a long way in bringing about some sort of rapprochement between the countries. China’s bruising tariff war with the US suggests that it may turn more towards India and India, too, could turn more towards China. Delhi will of course continue to have legitimate concerns about Beijing’s initiatives in the region, but it should also recognise that China appreciates ‘might’, which PM Modi is showing at the moment. This ensures that while true bonhomie is not on the cards, a mutual respect built up by strong economic ties can ensure a win-win situation for both the countries.
