With the launch of the GSAT-9 satellite, India has secured a much-needed leg up against Pakistan. This satellite, in one fell swoop, has alienated Pakistan — even if temporarily — from being part of the larger cooperation tapestry in the South Asian theatre. Of greater importance are the optics that are being projected: firstly, that Pakistan’s refusal to cooperate with India on the project has met an embarrassing end for it, and secondly, that an obstructionist attitude will not cut much ice with India or other SAARC countries.
The launch, while adding heft to PM Modi’s space-age diplomacy, has had the follow-on effect of deterring, in substantial measure, the effect of an aggressive Chinese diplomacy. This is a welcome one-up advantage that the Indian foreign services retinue will do well to capitalise on. India’s equation with Bangladesh is on a keel stronger than ever before. This is apparent from the recent signing of 22 agreements between the two countries in April. These steps, apart from the $5 billion credit line extended to Bangladesh, inclusive of $500 million for arms procurements, has only strengthened the Indo-Bangla relationship.
Recently, India has also benefited from the seemingly frigid relations between Nepal and China, under the leadership of Pushpa Kumar Dahal, who is widely perceived in the Chinese establishment as being “pro-India”. This is a veritable turn around in the state of affairs from the times of the former PM KP Sharma Oli, whose rule saw numerous deals between China and Nepal being signed. Sri Lanka, the island nation, is busy dealing with the fall-outs of the Mahinda Rajapaksa government, which borrowed $8 billion from China at lofty interest rates. Consequently, Colombo is forced to raise cheap money from other sources just to pay off the Chinese debt. Despite China’s investment in the Hambantota port, the Sri Lankan intelligentsia is very well aware of the revenue it stands to lose with the construction of Enayam port in Tamil Nadu as a transshipment point. The Indian diplomacy has not been remiss in making this obvious to the Sri Lankan government.
Meanwhile, China has not been sitting pretty. Its economic corridor project in Pakistan has ballooned from 46 billion in 2015 to 62 billion this year. Its attempts at scuttling India’s Nuclear Supplier Group membership succeeded last year, and news reports suggest that it is no mood to relax its resistance at the Bjoern meet of the NSG plenary in June. With the satellite launch, India has a slim lead, and it better not let it go.
