A new weather vane

With more and more skeletons falling out of its cupboard everyday — the latest being the claim that 55 per cent of the Netherlands is under the sea facing the risk of flooding, whereas the correct figure  is only 26 per cent — it has become undeniably clear that the  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been fooling around for too long, nonchalantly committing  blunders with the unfortunate result that there are now too many holes in its bucket to be plugged satisfactorily. Its earlier goof-ups make a pathetic inventory — that all the Himalayan glaciers would melt away by 2035, that 40 per cent of the Amazon rainforests were threatened by global warming, that the same warming process was responsible for natural disasters like hurricanes and floods, that the ice collected on the world’s mountains were disappearing, that global warming would cut crop production in rain-fed north Africa by 50 per cent in another 10 years. A leading British daily, The Sunday Telegraph, known for its investigative journalism, has reportedly alleged that these claims were based on information in press releases, newsletters, student dissertations and so on. An expectant world that was naively looking to the IPCC for directions to tide over the adverse impact of a warming globe is now shaken.For the IPCC to claim that the rest of its report is still “robust” is unrealistic. This unprecedented mess has resulted entirely due to the apparent lack of an appropriate mechanism for authentic data collection, accurate analysis, unbiased interpretation and acceptable conclusions. Sadly the IPCC has allowed all sorts of alarming predictions to float around unchecked.  Take for instance the postulated temperature changes.  The studies commissioned by Greenpeace at the IIT Chennai in 2008 had reportedly come out with the conclusion that “temperatures may rise by 4 to 5 degrees Celsius by 2100 if greenhouse emissions stick to their current rate”.

The IPCC itself has estimated that temperatures would rise by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius with 3 degrees rise as the most likely by 2100. When the weather and, with it its regional version, climate, are liable to frequent changes over time, how is one to project the likely temperature for 2100?More amusing are the sea level rises postulated. While the Greenpeace report is said to put it “up to 5 metres by 2100”, a study at the National Environmental Engineering Research Institute has reportedly put the annual average rise in sea level at 2.4 mm with the implication that by 2100 the sea level will go up by only 80cm! Thus the findings so far have been: temperature may rise by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius and sea levels by 5 metres — neither are alarming figures Most coastal cities like Mumbai witness a 4 metre rise in the sea level during the high tide twice daily and are not unduly affected by it.It is clear therefore that the IPCC has sadly failed to make any significant headway in its assigned job and instead has allowed itself to be sucked into the quicksand of ignominious allegations and controversies.  This has been because of its wrong perceptions about climate and the glaciers. Climatic studies form a part of Geography and mountain glaciation is a part of Geology.  Therefore, what is needed is a competent International Climate Control Commission headed by an experienced climatic geographer with a glacial geologist as his deputy, in the place of the present IPCC. Europe is full of reputed climatic geographers and India, full of eminent glacial geologists. The present teams of the IPCC need to be supplemented by experts and the new commission should have its own machinery to collect requisite data and it should be clearly seen that the interpretations are sound and the conclusions are acceptable and without any manipulation. A step in this direction has already been taken by the minister for environment, Jairam Ramesh who has set up a National Institute of Himalayan Glaciology at Dehra Dun and an Indian Network on Comprehensive Climate Assessment (INCCA) to assess climate changes and report by November, 2010.  These moves will reduce our dependence on the IPCC. There is a strong belief among climatologists that we are in fact heading towards another Ice Age-like situation and this is strengthened by the unprecedented heavy snowfall this year in many parts of the world like China, Europe, the Americas and Shimla and Kashmir. Climate is a complex phenomenon and only experts can interpret it. The writer is a former professor of Geology, IIT Bombay