Beyond the Headlines: The Hidden Missile Race Between Israel and Iran

Israel has the capability to carry out airstrikes on key Iranian targets, such as air bases and nuclear sites. Israel has a fleet of 39 advanced F-35 stealth fighter jets, making it the country with the fifth-largest collection of these aircraft in the world.

Michael Clarke, a security and defence expert from Sky News, explains that these planes are “almost impossible to detect”, meaning they are designed to avoid being seen by enemy radar systems. Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told Sky News that, while Iran has put a lot of effort into strengthening its air defence systems in recent years, it is still unclear how effective they actually are.

Iran is reported to have at least 42 long-range missile-launchers for air defence, including 32 Russian-made S-300 systems, which it received in 2016. These systems are designed to target, and destroy, aircraft or missiles from a distance.

In 2018, reports suggested that Israeli pilots went to Ukraine to train in how to avoid the S-300 air defence system, which Ukraine also has in its arsenal. This training was aimed at helping Israeli pilots better deal with similar systems. Because of this, Hinz explains, Iran has been putting more effort into developing its own air defence systems.

Iran’s Air Defence Systems

One of the earliest systems of its kind, the Sevom Khordad, was reportedly responsible for shooting down a US Global Hawk drone over the Persian Gulf in 2019. That same year, an upgraded version, called the Khordad-15, was introduced. It is now operated by Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards. According to Iran, this system can target enemy aircraft from a distance of up to 75 kilometres.

In 2022, Iran introduced an upgraded version of the Khordad-15 air defence system, called the Tactical Hunter. According to Iran, this system has a range of 120 kilometres and includes its own short-range missile defence. In February, two new defence systems were revealed, but it is still unclear if they are fully operational yet.

The Arman system, with a range of 120-180 kilometres, is said to be capable of targeting up to six ballistic missiles at the same time. Meanwhile, the Azarakhsh system is reported to be able to destroy low-altitude targets within a 50-kilometre radius. Hinz suggests that Israelis are, possibly, skilled at disrupting Iran’s air defences using jamming and electronic warfare, although this is not confirmed.

If Israel wanted to completely bypass Iran’s air defence systems, it could choose to launch a missile from a plane without entering Iranian airspace. While nearby countries are unlikely to allow Israel to use their airspace, Hinz notes that they, probably, would not try to shoot down Israeli aircraft either.

Israel’s Jericho Missiles

Israel could launch ballistic missiles from its own land to avoid entering the airspace of neighbouring countries. According to Jeremy Binnie, Middle East and Africa editor at the defence intelligence firm, Janes, if Israel launched a similar ballistic missile strike on Iran, it would be difficult for Iran to intercept the attack in the same way. But it is uncertain if Israel has the ability to carry out a similar attack. Israel’s ballistic missile programme, known as Jericho, is under a tight veil of secrecy.

While not much information is available, the IISS estimates that Israel possesses around 24 Jericho-II missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. According to Hinz, they have submarine-launched cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, possibly used as part of their nuclear defence. But whether they have conventional, precision-guided versions for other uses is unclear.

According to open sources, Israel has at least four types of ballistic missiles, covering small, medium and intermediate ranges. These include the LORA, with a range of 280 km (174 miles), and the Jericho-III, which has a range of 4,800 km (2,983 miles) to 6,500 km (4,039 miles).

Learning Curve for Both

Out of the over 330 missiles and drones launched during Iran’s April attack, along with 181 ballistic missiles fired on October 1, US officials report that many either failed to launch, or crashed. According to Binnie, although this might not seem to be a total success for Iran, they had gained valuable insight into Israel’s capabilities. On the other hand, Hinz explains, Israel, possibly, took this as an opportunity to evaluate its air defence systems.

Each time they activated their missile defence systems, they could refine their algorithms and improve their procedures, he added. The Iron Dome, a missile defence system guided by radar, has successfully intercepted over 90% of short-range rockets aimed at Israel. According to Hinz, ongoing software upgrades have made the system even more efficient.

Israel has two other defence systems, Arrow and David’s Sling, designed to stop ballistic missiles from much greater distances. Arrow can travel at hypersonic speeds and intercept missiles outside Earth’s atmosphere. The US stated that Israel’s air defences were effective during the attack, since there were no casualties and only minor damage. Binnie theorizes that much of this success can be credited to US help. The Israeli Air Force may well have found it difficult to handle it alone.

Iran’s Expanding Arsenal

The Missile Defence Project, part of the US-based think-tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), states: Iran possesses at least 12 types of medium- and short-range ballistic missiles. These include the Tondar 69, with a range of 150 kilometres (93 miles), and the Khorramshahr and Sejjil missiles, which can reach up to 2,000 kilometres (1,243 miles).

According to Patrick Senft, a research coordinator at Armament Research Services (ARES), the Shahab-3 serves as the base for all of Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles, using liquid fuel. The Project reports that the Shahab-3 was introduced in 2003 and can carry a warhead weighing between 760 kilograms and 1,200 kilograms (1,675-2,645 pounds). It can be launched from both mobile platforms and silos.

Iran Watch notes that the latest versions of the Shahab-3, Ghadr and Emad missiles have an accuracy range of within 300 metres (almost 1,000 feet) of their targets. Tehran launched a new missile, the Fattah-1, in the recent attacks, reports the Iranian media. The Fattah-1 is described by Iran as a ‘hypersonic’ missile, meaning it travels at speeds of Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound, which is about 3,800 miles per hour (6,100 kilometres per hour).

According to Hinz, the Fattah-1 seems to have a warhead on a ‘manoeuvrable re-entry vehicle’. This feature allows the missile to change its path slightly during the final phase of its descent, helping it avoid missile defence systems before reaching its target.

(The author of this article is an Aerospace & Defence Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany)

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA)