Apophis is a near-Earth asteroid, which means its orbit around the Sun brings it within 1.3 times the distance between the Sun and Earth. Its full name is 99942 Apophis
Using NASA’s Eyes on Asteroids visualisation tool, you can now easily explore asteroids and comets that come close to Earth's orbit. You can also learn about the spacecraft that visit these objects with just a click or a swipe. Every year, thousands of asteroids and dozens of comets are discovered. Some of these, known as near-Earth objects (NEOs), have orbits that bring them into the inner solar system.
As their numbers increase daily, these objects are closely monitored by NASA-funded astronomers to check for any potential threat to Earth. The Eyes on Asteroids tool, updated daily, shows the orbits of all known NEOs and gives detailed information about them.
What is Apophis?
Apophis is a near-Earth asteroid, which means its orbit around the Sun brings it within 1.3 times the distance between the Sun and Earth. Its full name is 99942 Apophis.
When Apophis was discovered in 2004, scientists initially thought there was a 2.7% chance it could hit Earth in 2029, which got a lot of media attention. There was also a small chance it could hit Earth in 2036. However, more observations have shown that Apophis will not collide with Earth in 2029 or 2036.
However, in 2029, Apophis will pass closer to Earth than our geostationary communication satellites, which is likely to generate a lot of public interest, according to Planetary.org.
What is the Meaning of Apophis?
In Egyptian mythology, Apophis was a serpent and the enemy of Ra, the sun god. Each night, Apophis tried to bring eternal (lasting forever) darkness to the world but was defeated by Ra at sunrise.
What is the size of Apophis?
Radar images reveal that Apophis is 450 metres (1,500 feet) long, which is about the length of 5 football fields and taller than the Empire State Building in New York City. Its shortest side measures about 170 metres height.
Apophis is probably egg-shaped or even has two lobes, similar to Arrokoth, the small world that NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft flew by in 2019.
Is Apophis Going to Hit Earth?
Not anytime soon. Apophis will definitely miss Earth in 2029 and 2036. Radar observations during its flyby in March 2021 confirmed there will be no impact for at least the next 100 years.
Why Did the Chances of Apophis Hitting Earth in 2029 Increase Before Dropping to Zero?
Shortly after Apophis was discovered, additional observations helped refine its path, showing that some possible trajectories still included Earth. As more observations were made, scientists better understood its orbit around the Sun, eventually ruling out any chance of a collision with Earth in 2029.
How Near Will Apophis Get to Earth in 2029?
On April 13, 2029, Apophis will come as close as 30,600 kilometres (19,000 miles) above Earth.
How Close Will Apophis Get to Earth in 2036?
On March 30, 2036, Apophis will pass by Earth at a much greater distance of 8.4 million kilometres (5.2 million miles). This is more than 20 times the distance between Earth and the Moon.
Will We Be Able to See Apophis?
When Apophis passes by in 2029, people in Europe, Africa, and western Asia will be able to see it. It will look like a fairly bright star (magnitude 3.1) quickly moving across the sky. In 2036, however, it will be too far away to see without a telescope.
Could Apophis Collide with Our Geostationary Communication Satellites?
No, Apophis will pass closer to Earth than some of our geostationary satellites, but its path will be tilted away from the equator and won't cross the area where these satellites are located.
What Would Happen if Apophis Collided with Earth?
If Apophis hit Earth, it would cause widespread destruction over several hundred kilometres from the impact site. The energy released would be equivalent to more than 1,000 megatons of TNT, or as powerful as tens to hundreds of nuclear bombs.
Are There Any Plans for a Mission to Apophis?
NASA's OSIRIS-APEX mission will study Apophis for 18 months starting in April 2029, just before its close approach to Earth. OSIRIS-APEX is the repurposed OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, which returned a sample from the asteroid Bennu to Earth in September 2023.
OSIRIS-APEX will examine how Earth's gravity affects Apophis' rotation and surface features. This research could reveal what is beneath the asteroid's surface.The mission will provide new insights into asteroids like Apophis, including how we might deflect one if it were on a collision course with Earth.
Will ISRO Collaborate on a Mission to Study Apophis?
Yes, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) Chairman S. Somnath has shown interest in collaborating with global space agencies to inspect Apophis. While ISRO's specific role is still uncertain, it has been suggested that India could contribute an instrument to a joint mission with major agencies like NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA).
This collaboration marks a significant step for ISRO and global space exploration. Studying Apophis will provide valuable insights into the composition and behaviour of asteroids and support planetary defence efforts to prevent potential asteroid impacts on Earth.
(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are of the author only
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