Enter the dragon

No one expected any surprises from the recently concluded 13th summit of the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation. Previous such conferences have been high on the rhetoric and low on the follow-up. Further, often the summits got bogged down in bilateral issues, usually among India and Pakistan, frustrating the others.

This time round, there were some interesting developments that have not got the attention they deserve. One is that there are welcome signs of maturity among member countries that has been regrettably absent in the past. This explains why no one, not even New Delhi, made an overt fuss over the fact that the Nepali delegation was led by King Gyanendra.

It is well-known that ties between the Himalayan kingdom and New Delhi have been frosty ever since the monarch staged his coup and overturned democracy in February this year. But, despite provocation from the King, New Delhi’s response has been measured. In the past, India’s smaller neighbours would have sought to fish in troubled waters and make much of differences between New Delhi and Kathmandu but this time around, all of them, including Pakistan conducted themselves with restraint.

India, on its part had other plans and worked to get in Afghanistan as a new member, a timely and pragmatic move. True, Afghanistan is in shambles and Hamid Karzai’s writ does not extend beyond Kabul. Much of the country is in the grip of dangerous warlords and had it not been for the Americans, the country would have fallen apart. But Afghanistan needs to rejoin the international community and India is looking to increase its influence in the region; this move will fulfill both objectives.

However, the most significant outcome of this conference was the inclusion of China and Japan as observers. India tried to play spoiler when it came to China, obviously driven by the outdated logic that the SAARC countries constitute India’s strategic backyard and the dragon would usurp our traditional role here. Nothing could be further from the truth. China no longer needs SAARC to prove that it is Asia’s mightiest power and neither is it focused on besting India in the region.

India’s Nepal policy too has been driven by the fact that unless New Delhi engages Kathmandu, irrespective of whether or not democracy is restored, Beijing will step in. Once again, there is nothing to suggest that China is interested in getting the better of India here. Beijing has declared consistently that it wants nothing to do with the Maoists and has also made it clear to King Gyanendra that it will not be drawn into his jousting with India.

It is odd that India should worry about China’s inclusion in SAARC at a time when New Delhi is actively engaging the dragon in trade and diplomacy. In a departure from the past, China has been responsive and accommodative to New Delhi’s concerns to the extent to agreeing to put aside the contentious border issue and get on with other things. This was appropriated by our foreign policy mandarins as a triumph of Indian diplomacy. So why the churlishness now? New Delhi should have known that any objection from it on China getting observer status would have been overruled by the others, most of whom have friendly relations with Beijing. The last man standing so to speak is Bhutan but the Chinese have been working quite hard on that relationship.

In fact, India should have taken the lead in pushing for China’s inclusion for several reasons. Observer status makes China more accountable to the SAARC grouping rather than strike deals with individual members. And whether we like it or not, SAARC is still not taken seriously by the developed world. Rather, it is seen as something of a poor man’s club. With China and Japan in the grouping, the world will treat SAARC with a little more respect.

For all its pretensions to great power status, New Delhi still lacks confidence when it comes to dealing with a power like China. That explains its irrational fear that China will hijack SAARC. Instead of that, New Delhi should take the lead in proposing viable ways to push forward a South Asian economic union. In this, it may be necessary for India to make a few unilateral concessions, something New Delhi has been notoriously reluctant to do in the past.

Hopefully, with an economist at the helm, we will see a change in attitude. Manmohan Singh is a man free of the prejudices so characteristic of South Asian politicians.
He should now take the lead to involve both China and Japan further in SAARC. Perhaps, this way lies salvation for the desperately poor region.