How Pakistan’s ‘rogue’ nuclear weapons have become a ticking time bomb

The thought of a nuclear-capable state losing control of its weapons to non-state actors or rogue elements is reason enough to give goosebumps all over, to the world community at large. The world exhibits concerns regarding "loose nukes" in Pakistan given the presence of armed religious terrorist organizations on Pakistani soil (Sethi 2007). The presence of Islamist sympathizers within the Pakistani military, intelligence, and scientific organizations constitutes an internal threat, which could facilitate nuclear material and technology to jihadi outfits. Lastly, the re-emergence of illegal networks like the one headed by Abdul Qadeer Khan, exporting nuclear technologies to other countries for personal gains can result in non-state actors gaining nuclear capabilities (Sethi 2007). The likelihood of such forced control of nuclear resources and the risk of unregulated nuclear proliferation in Pakistan have been voiced, documented, and studied over and over again for the last four decades. Deep-rooted terrorism remains one of the most critical threats to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Geography further aggravates the problem since the majority of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons infrastructure is located to the North and West of the country.

These regions, being close to the Durand Line are the hub of Tehreek-e-Taliban and Al-Qaeda operatives and are very susceptible to terrorist attacks (Gregory 2009). Pertinently, a series of attacks on nuclear weapons facilities have occurred in the past viz, an attack on the nuclear missile storage facility near Pakistani airbase at Sargodha on November 1, 2007, causing eight casualties (Roggio 2007). Similarly, an attack on Pakistan’s nuclear airbase at Kamrawas carried out by a suicide bomber on December 10, 2007. (Roggio 2007). Also, there was a reported terrorist attack on August 21, 2008, whereby suicide bombers from the Pakistani Taliban attacked several entrance points to the weapons complex at the Wah cantonment, which is considered to be one of Pakistan's largest nuclear weapons manufacturing facilities (Perlez 2008).

A brief recap of Pakistan's history highlights that Pakistan has always championed the cause of Islam and linked its nuclear arsenal to “Islamic bomb”. Religious extremism has deeply infiltrated the ranks of the Pakistani military. The attack on Karachi’s Mehran naval base on May 2011 substantiates the claim. The military detained Kamran Ahmed, a former commando of the Pakistan Navy's Special Services Group, and his younger brother Zaman Ahmed (Bukhari 2011). Colonel Shahid Bashir, the former commander of Shamsi Air Force Base, was detained in 2009 for disclosing "sensitive" information to Hizb-ut-Tahrir (Hoodbhoy 2013). In 2012, Brigadier Ali Khan along with four other officers was court-martialed and convicted for having ties to Hizb-ut-Tahrir (Dawn 2012).

The current Chief of the Pakistani Army, Gen. Asim Munir has a reputation of being a hardliner himself, rooted in the Islamic tradition (Johny 2022). Under him, the infiltration of radical elements into the military ranks is likely to increase substantially. The risk of the transfer of nuclear technology to terror outfits by religiously motivated military officers once again runs high within the system. Further, there is also a grave risk of smuggling of Pakistan’s nuclear technology to its radical scientific community. Many would recall that in August 2001 a month before the 9/11 terror attack, Chaudiri Abdul Majeed and Sultan Bashiruddin Mahmood, who held a number of high-ranking positions in Pakistan's nuclear project, travelled to the Taliban's Kandahar headquarters and spent three days with bin Laden, who was eager to get weapons of mass destruction (Times 2008). Similarly, a radio-active consignment from Pakistan was intercepted at Heathrow Airport, London in Jan 2023. However, the biggest controversial figure in this regard was Abdul Qadeer Khan also known as ‘the father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb’. He was detained in 2004 for illegitimately providing Iran, Libya, and North Korea with nuclear technology (Shah 2021). Dr. Khan admitted his "deepest regrets and unqualified apologies" in a televised statement. Pervez Musharraf, the president of Pakistan at the time, granted Dr. Khan a pardon; nonetheless, he was kept under house arrest until 2009 (Guardian 2004). The lenient treatment accorded to A.Q Khan is a testimony of Pakistan’s culture. The illegitimate network headed by Khan involved many insiders of military rank.

28 May is celebrated in Pakistan as “Youm-e-Takbir” or “The day of Greatness” in commemoration of the Chagai-I and Cjhagai-II series of nuclear tests. On this day, Pakistan claims to have possessed nuclear weapons, a first in the Muslim world. However, the day also reminds the world community and planners if Pakistani nuclear weapons are safe enough. Given its unstable political conditions in the recent past, systematic corruption within the political and military infrastructure, abysmal economic indicators, the systematic radicalization of its society, and proven links to terror outfits, the fear of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal or technology going to the wrong hands cannot be disregarded. It remains a threat to global security.