How will Ebrahim Raisi's death affect Iran’s ties with China and Russia?
A successor to Raisi is yet to be named. Raisi was often dubbed to be more of a hardliner and perceived to be more ‘anti-west’ as compared to his predecessor Hassan Rouhani.
Late Ebrahim Raisi, 63 -- who died in a helicopter crash, in East Azerbaijan province (Iran), on May 19, 2024 -- served as Iranian President for nearly three years (he had taken over as president in August 2021). Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian (60) was also killed in the crash.
Iran’s ties with China and Russia
A successor to Raisi is yet to be named. Raisi was often dubbed to be more of a hardliner and perceived to be more ‘anti-west’ as compared to his predecessor Hassan Rouhani. There is no doubt, that due to key US sanctions imposed on Iran, after the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal 2015/Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action JCPOA in 2018, Tehran had begun to move closer to China and Russia (Iran and China had signed a 25-year pact – referred to as ‘strategic cooperation pact in March 2021) in recent years. Under Raisi, Tehran’s proximity with Beijing and Moscow further increased in both the strategic and economic sphere due to the geopolitical circumstances in the Middle East and outside.
Iran's support for Russia during the Russia-Ukraine war, enrichment of Uranium levels well over the levels agreed under the Iran nuclear deal 2015 and the turmoil in the Middle East - especially Iran-Israel tensions further strained ties with the west. US has also imposed several sanctions on Tehran for providing military support to Russia.
It had been argued, that Raisi took forward Iran's Look East policy initially conceived by former Iranian President Ahmadijenad. Iran, which entered BRICS+ in January 2024, had been pushing for de-dollarization and had signed an agreement with Russian for carrying out trade in local currencies in December 2023.
While tensions between Iran and US may have risen significantly and Tehran may have moved much closer to China and Russia a few things need to be borne in mind:
First, there were times when a revival of the Iran nuclear deal seemed possible. Apart from Biden's initial months in office -- when Rouhani was president -- the best opportunity seemed to be the Russia-Ukraine war. Washington wanted to keep oil prices in check and improving ties with Iran and allowing the sale of Iranian oil was one way of doing so. Days before the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, in 2022, Raisi had also referred to the possibility of Iran selling oil to Europe. Even though US-Iran strains continued, Washington DC turned a blind eye to the sale of Iranian oil to several countries including China (in the first three months of 2024, Iran’s crude oil exports to China witnessed a year on year rise of over 30% according to estimates).
Second, back channels between the US and Iran have continued despite the tensions between both countries. One of the key factors for these back-channel talks has been Washington’s attempt to ensure that the situation in the Middle East does not worsen – especially after the recent Iran-Israel tensions. This year itself, indirect talks between both countries were held in Oman. Earlier this month, US White House Middle East envoy Brett McGurk and acting special envoy on Iran Abram Paley held indirect talks with Iran in Oman – via Omani mediators. The issues discussed were Iran’s nuclear program, Iran’s attack on Israel in April 2024 and the need to rein in Iranian proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah (the US state department has not denied the fact that it would keep its channels of communications with Iran open).
US State Department government spokesperson Matthew Miller also stated that Iran had sought US assistance after the helicopter crash which killed Ebrahim Raisi and other officials. Said Miller:
"I'm not going to get into the details, but we were asked by the Iranian government for assistance”.
Third, despite the bonhomie between Iran and China there were misgivings in Iran about China not having invested significantly in Iran. While China had made some ambitious commitments regarding investments in Iran -- under the 25 year strategic pact – economic ties between both countries have been restricted largely to China’s purchase of large amounts of crude oil from Iran. Tehran had conveyed this to Beijing. Realising the pitfalls of excessive dependence upon China, the Iranian President also sought to strengthen ties with several other countries – including India -- during his tenure. On May 13, 2024, India and China had signed a 10 year agreement via which India would develop the port for 10 years. The US while commenting on this agreement had warned India about potential sanctions. PM Modi had met twice with Ebrahim Raisi. PM Modi, while condoling Raisi’s death also recognised his role in improving India-Iran ties, in a post on x said:
"Deeply saddened and shocked by the tragic demise of Dr. Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran. His contribution to strengthening India-Iran bilateral relationship will always be remembered. My heartfelt condolences to his family and the people of Iran. India stands with Iran in this time of sorrow”
In conclusion, there is no doubt that Raisi during his presidency faced some serious economic and geopolitical challenges and adopted an aggressive stance vis-à-vis the west, he was pragmatic enough to keep channels of communication with the West open and also to understand the need for diversifying Iran’s economic relations.
The author is a policy analyst and faculty member at the Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own and do not reflect those of DNA)